The Odds on the Iranian Regime's Survival

If the Iranian regime did rig the presidential elections, it will join a long roster of governments that have tried to preserve their power through fraudulent means. Minxin Pei explores forty years of compromised elections in authoritarian countries to conclude that the Iranian regime is likely to survive the current crises as long as it maintains united support among the ruling elite and security forces.

A Chance for Turkish-Kurdish Peace

Much of what President Obama promised in his historic speech in Cairo will take a long time to fulfill. Henri Barkey identifies one issue where Obama's influence could be used for immediate and important results: resolving the Kurdish question in Turkey and northern Iraq.

Arctic Security and Climate Change

The accelerating pace of climate change, increasing competition over resources, and new territorial claims demand that greater attention be paid to the Arctic. Minimizing the environmental impact of climate change and resource development must be the top priority, according to a report from the Carnegie Endowment, the University of the Arctic, and Dartmouth College.

Moving Out of Kuwait’s Political Impasse

Kuwait must enact further electoral and constitutional reform to break the country’s longstanding political paralysis, explains Nathan J. Brown. Continued gridlock could lead the emir to override the constitution and dissolve the parliament, dealing a major setback to democracy in Kuwait and the region. 

Lebanon's Political Evolution

Writing from Beirut, Paul Salem describes the pro-western March 14 coalition's success over Hizbullah as "a quiet victory for moderation and pragmatism over extremism and confrontation."

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah recently carried out a major leadership reshuffle in key ministries and institutions. Christopher Boucek cautions that these changes are not the onset of a nascent reform effort, but rather "indicate a further consolidation of state authority and an evolution of central control."

Indonesia will Ratify Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Indonesia announced at Carnegie that it would ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately after the United States does. Speaking at Carnegie, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said: "We share [President Obama’s] vision of a world in which nuclear weapons have been eradicated."

Party Control in China

The Chinese Communist Party retains complete control over China's political and economic apparatus two decades after the Tiananmen incident. The Party's resilience is largely due to sweeping reforms instituted in response to the Tiananmen turmoil. Former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, Ted Koppel, and a panel of experts led by Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy discussed how the ensuing years have transformed China's political trajectory and how the party must answer today's challenges.