Georgia is entering a period of transition, with parliamentary and presidential elections due in 2012‒2013, after which a new constitution will take effect. The current government has made good progress in building a functioning state that delivers services to citizens, but Georgia’s economic picture is increasingly uncertain.
The governing elite, led by President Mikheil Saakashvili, has no serious domestic political opposition but faces the challenge of how to re-invent itself. It suffers from an accountability gap and risks turning Georgia into a one-party state.
After years of governing in an informal and improvisational way, the Georgian government needs to build institutions and choose a long-term development model. Three ideas pull Georgia in different directions. One is a conservative traditional conception of “old Georgia,” which commands respect but offers little as an economic or political model. A second idea, envisaging Georgia as another “Singapore” open to worldwide investment, has many supporters, especially from the still influential libertarian group who believe that Georgia needs maximum deregulation. But foreign investment is currently falling in Georgia and this model would not solve deep problems such as rural poverty and high unemployment.
The European Union (EU) offers a third path, with a prospective Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area that would offer privileged access to the EU single market in return for institutional reform. This path would require the governing elite to surrender both political and economic power. The EU has sold the idea poorly and will need to offer more foreign technical assistance to ease the regulatory burden it will impose. But it offers Georgia the best hope of long-term development and a European anchor.
Georgia is entering a critical period of political transition in 2012 and 2013, as the country faces fundamental choices about its strategic direction and long-term development model.
If the Egyptian government has instigated the sudden crisis with the United States in anticipation of a domestic confrontation, then the worrying implication is that it is actively preparing to go on the offensive and trigger such a confrontation.
With the death of Kim Jong-Il, global attention has refocused and intensified on North Korea and the Six Party Talks—halted since April 2009.
Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception.
The recent bill on the State Duma elections seems like a concession to the opposition, but in reality it would actually be a serious obstacle to the development of a full-fledged multiparty system and the strengthening of representative government.
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