Over the past year, the Taiwan Strait and cross-Strait relations in general have been fairly quiet. Regular flights have resumed between the mainland and Taiwan, and with the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, steps have been taken to promote better economic integration. As 2012 approaches, both Taiwan and the United States face presidential elections, and China will hold the 18th National Party Congress, where President Hu Jintao will step down from his position as general secretary. In the face of possible leadership and policy changes, many questions exist about the future state of U.S.-Taiwan-China relations.
Although the last three years have seen close cross-strait interaction and cooperation bring peace and stability to the Taiwan Strait, there are still many difficult challenges that need to be faced.
Upcoming elections and power transitions in Taipei, Beijing, and Washington, coupled with looming uncertainty in economic and political ties, pose potential challenges to cross-strait relations.
Fears of abandonment by the United States are growing in Taiwan, although U.S. scholars doubt the validity of these concerns.
Beijing faces many domestic challenges, ranging from inflation to nationalism to popular unrest. Such issues are likely to take precedence over cross-strait relations in the minds of Mainland China's leaders.
The cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement is a step forward in regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific.
U.S. interests are best served by maintaining the status quo policy toward Taiwan. Washington cannot accommodate Beijing's demands to stop selling arms to Taipei as long as China continues its military buildup opposite Taiwan's shores.
As armed clashes last weekend show, north Lebanon is becoming a growing support base for the Syrian revolution. Sunni mobilization in support of the uprising in Syria is mounting and the Lebanese government is losing its ability to maintain its policy of neutrality.
The U.S. pivot to the Asia-Pacific has created both tension and opportunity in its relations with China.
The success of Germany's Pirates party is the result of its transparency and accountability. Sustaining that enthusiasm through national elections in 2013 will be a challenge, however.
Putin has returned to the Kremlin, but he faces a significantly different Russia, because the country's situation has changed drastically. The previous Putin’s consensus between those in power and society has fallen apart.
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