The rise of China presents one of the most important global challenges facing the United States in this century.  China’s economy could eclipse that of the United States before the middle of the century, leading to a reordering of the global trade and investment system and a redistribution of global power in ways that could severely challenge U.S. interests.  Just as troubling would be a Chinese collapse, replacing a major strategic challenge with the prospect of significant geopolitical instability. On the other hand, successful Chinese transition to a well-functioning, market-based liberal democracy could provide the United States with a valuable ally in meeting a range of common threats—from terrorism to global warming. 

Despite the importance of “getting China right,” American views of China tend to be encumbered with preexisting biases, ideological constraints, vague generalizations, inaccurate information, and misapplied theories.  The resulting policy discussions often end in profound uncertainty and disagreement, torn between extremes of principled confrontation and sympathetic engagement.  Given the high stakes involved, Americans need a deeper and more accurate understanding of China’s rise and its policy implications. 

To address this foreign policy imperative, the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is hosting a series of debates on the most critical—and controversial—issues involving China’s economic, political-social, and military evolution and their policy implications.  The main purpose of the debates is to provide fresh thinking based on systematic, well informed deliberation of the main issues. The series is primarily for members of Congress and their staffs but will also reach a wider audience of experts, opinion leaders, and the general public through limited invitations and broad internet dissemination. 

The debate series is currently planned to address the following debate questions:

1.    Is Communist Party rule sustainable in China? (October 5, 2006)
2.    Without significantly accelerated reforms and major new policy actions, will China's rapid growth unravel before its economy overtakes the U.S.? (December 1, 2006)
3.   Is China’s military modernization program a growing threat to the United States and Asia?    (February 6, 2007)
4.    Has U.S. engagement with China produced a significant improvement in human rights? (March 5, 2007)
5.   Does China seek to dominate Asia and drastically reduce (if not eliminate) U.S. influence as a regional power? (April 20, 2007)
6.   Do China's violations of international commercial norms, including exchange rate manipulation, IPR violations and non-tariff barriers, require immediate forceful steps by its trading partners to make it play by the rules? (May 14, 2007)
7.    Is China at present (or is it becoming) a responsible stakeholder in the international community? (June 11, 2007)
8.    U.S. policy toward Taiwan: Time for Change? (March 26, 2008)  
9.    Is China’s reluctance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions the major stumbling block to effective international action on global climate change? 
10.    Is China doing too little to assist the global war on terrorism, necessitating a concerted U.S. effort to elicit greater genuine Chinese anti-terrorism collaboration across the board?   
11.    Should the United States recognize Taiwan as an independent nation and commit itself to defending the island?
12.    Is China laying the groundwork for meeting its enormous future energy needs through aggressive efforts to corner global energy supplies requiring a targeted US response?

The debate series will be co-hosted by Minxin Pei, Michael Swaine, and Albert Keidel, Senior Associates with the Carnegie Endowment's China Program.