Policy makers are scrambling to respond decisively to Yemen’s instability after the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. In the first of a new Carnegie series, Yemen: On the Brink, Sarah Phillips explains that there are limits to how much foreign intervention can accomplish. Yemen’s political system needs to become less centralized and more inclusive.
Israel's announcement during Vice President Biden's visit that it will build additional Jewish housing in East Jerusalem has strained relations between the United States and Israel and threatened the renewal of peace talks. Writing in the New York Times, Michele Dunne explains that the incident has inflamed ill will and distrust, and Nathan Brown says that the flare-up over building in Jerusalem masks deeper problems that will complicate negotiations.
Over the next year, Egypt will hold three important elections. Amr Hamzawy and Nathan Brown explain that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s reduced political engagement and increased focus on its traditional religious, educational, and social agenda may mark the loss of an opportunity for a more pluralistic political system in Egypt. Marina Ottaway describes how the elections stand no chance of changing the distribution of power in the country.
- More on Egypt:
- Obstacles to Presidential Change in Egypt: What ElBaradei and Others Face [op-ed]
The West views foreign elections as turning points that define the success or failure of a country’s democratization. Marina Ottaway explains that elections are only small parts of much larger and more complicated stories: they do not cause power shifts, they can only reflect shifts that have already taken place.
- More on Elections:
- The Iraqi Election Campaign [commentary]
The sovereign debt crisis in Greece, coupled with the loss of competitiveness in Spain, Ireland, and Italy, threaten the stability of the euro itself. Uri Dadush and Moisés Naím suggest that the time has come for European policy makers to consider using moderate levels of inflation to help restore balance to the European economy.
- More on the Euro Zone:
- Greek Crisis: A Dire Warning From Argentina and Latvia [international economic bulletin]
- The Euro Under Attack [event]
- Europe’s Test—What Greece’s Debt Crisis Means for the World [video q&a]
Carnegie presents a
unique and frequently updated analysis of the elections and their evolving outcome, with profiles of the six major Iraqi political alliances and their most significant members, taking you inside this historic event as it continues to play out.
While the results of the parliamentary elections will help determine Iraq’s stability and may influence the drawdown of U.S. forces, the voting was only one step in the country’s political transition.
The recent Colombian court decision to preserve a two-term limit for the presidency is a triumph for democracy, writes
Robert Kagan and Aroop Mukharji in the
Washington Post. By following the democratic process and allowing the courts to make the final decision, President Uribe has set a model for peaceful democratic transitions of power in a region plagued by hyper-presidencies.
Over the next half century, the economies of developing countries are predicted to surge ahead of their advanced counterparts. Washington’s senior G20 diplomats gathered to discuss whether the world’s leaders are prepared.
In spite of a dramatic global recession which cost millions of workers their jobs, democratic governments have shown remarkable political resilience, write
Thomas Carothers and Zachary Davis. Concerns that struggling democracies would fall under the weight of the recession were unfounded, as frustrated citizens largely chose to express their anger through the democratic process rather than against it.
A broad bipartisan consensus in the United States is beginning to emerge on foreign policy issues like fighting terrorism and confronting Iran, according to
Robert Kagan. He writes in the
Washington Post that basic U.S. foreign policy interests do not change, whether a republican or a democrat is in the White House.
Turkey’s Islam-influenced government is engaged in a series of escalating conflicts with the country's powerful secular military establishment.
Henri Barkey explains that Turkey’s constitution, imposed by the military in 1982, must be redrafted if the country is to break out of the cycle of military and judicial interventions in Turkish politics.
The goal of nuclear superiority is unattainable. Instead,
James Acton suggests that the United States can enhance its security by giving nuclear-armed adversaries strong incentives for restraint in a crisis.
China’s high trade surplus limits its ability to respond to domestic economic contractions.
Michael Pettis explains that, while China may experience a painful financial contraction as it increases private consumption, even a dramatic slowdown of Chinese growth will not prevent China’s share of global GDP from rising.
The recent U.S.-led offensive has succeeded in forcing the Taliban out of Marja, although several thousand U.S. and Afghan troops will remain to prevent the Taliban’s return.
Gilles Dorronsoro suggests that even when the coalition is able to achieve limited tactical successes, flaws in the coalition’s larger strategy will make these achievements short-lived at best.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace announced the launch of the Euro–Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI), a two-year Commission to build the intellectual framework for an inclusive transatlantic security system for the 21st century. Co-chairs Sam Nunn in the United States, Igor Ivanov in Russia, and Wolfgang Ischinger in Belgium, discuss EASI's new role in addressing Euro-Atlantic security challenges.
