Carnegie E-news  
Carnegie e-news
October 16, 2007 

Issue Highlights
 bullet Feature: U.S. national security after 9/11
bullet China: Corruption threatens China's future; China's 17th Party Congress; oil in South East Asia
bullet South Asia: Protests in Myanmar; elections in Pakistan; South Asia domestic politics
bullet Middle East: Turkey's strategic future; democracy in Egypt; elections in the Arab world; Iran’s revolutionary guard
bullet Nonproliferation: Status of the international response to Iran's nuclear program; North Korea's nuclear plans and the six-party negotiations
bullet Trade: Future of the WTO; China's increasingly high technology trade; core labor standards; India's perspective on the Doha round
bullet Russia/Eurasia: New book by Shevtsova; Russia's power configuration; Kyrgyzstan and its role in the region; nationalism and ethnic identities in Russia
bullet U.S. Role: Osama bin Laden's book recommendations
bullet Foreign Policy Magazine: Web Exclusive: Seven Questions: The Hired Guns of Iraq

Iraq U.S. Strategy for Security in a Post-9/11 World
While the Iraq war has diverted U.S. political energy from other serious issues for the last five years, the breakdown of the nonproliferation regime poses the greatest threat to U.S. security, warned Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews in testimony last week before the House Oversight Committee’s National Security and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee. Mathews said, “A world of 20 or 30 or more nuclear weapon states holds few prospects for avoiding nuclear catastrophe. The stability that we enjoyed for 50 years of the Cold War didn’t happen naturally. It happened because of unrelenting effort on the part of the two superpowers, and some very close misses.”
Click here for transcript and written testimony.
 
bullet China
Corruption Threatens China's FutureCorruption Threatens China’s Future
Carnegie’s Minxin Pei paints a sobering picture of corruption in China, where roughly 10 percent of government spending, contracts, and transactions is estimated to be used as kickbacks and bribes, or is simply stolen. In a new Policy Brief, Pei examines the root causes for China’s rampant corruption—partial economic reforms, lax enforcement efforts, and reluctance by the Communist Party to adopt political reforms—and the ensuing economic losses and jeopardized financial stability.

Hu JintauHow Hu Can Break Free From Political Gridlock
In the Financial Times, Carnegie Senior Associate Minxin Pei comments on issues related to the gathering of China's Communist party leaders in its 17th Congress. Pei notes that one might assume that Chinese President Hu Jintao should face little opposition in installing his favored successors at the congress. "But," he writes, "politics in Beijing is never so simple."

ShambaughBehind China’s 17th Party Congress: Institutional Atrophy and Reform
On September 25, Carnegie hosted an event with Professor David Shambaugh, founding director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University assessed significance of the17th National Congress of Communist Party of China and its influence on the domestic political development in China. The event was moderated by Carnegie’s Albert Keidel and Minxin Pei.

KurlantzickSucked into a Black Hole
In Time magazine, Joshua Kurlantzick discusses the recent trend of multinational companies searching for oil in ever more unlikely places, especially Southeast Asia. According to Kurlantzick, many in the region hope that the discovery of oil could help eliminate poverty. "Yet," he writes, "few seem to realize that rather than miracles, oil often brings misery, including the massive graft witnessed in some petroleum-rich African and Middle Eastern states."

bullet Trade
What Future for the WTO?What Future for the WTO?
In a new article in France's L’Économie politique, Carnegie's Sandra Polaski refutes the widespread belief that negotiators must reach a deal soon in order to save the Doha Round and prevent irreparable harm to world trade and the WTO itself. It will take great time and effort to bridge the wide gaps which still exist in the agriculture and manufacturing talks, but the final result — a trade agreement which addresses employment concerns and produces real gains for countries at all levels of development — is well worth the wait.

China's Increasingly High Technology TradeChina's Increasingly High Technology Trade
How high — and how fast — is China’s trade moving up the technology ladder? What are the causes and policy implications for China and the U.S. of China’s increasing export sophistication? On September 26, Carnegie and the Brookings Institution co-sponsored a discussion with three researchers from the U.S. and China on these controversial topics.

globeThe World Bank's Approach to Core Labor Standards and Employment Creation
On October 3, Carnegie Senior Associate Sandra Polaski testified before the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Financial Services. She praised some recent actions by the World Bank and its sister institution, the International Finance Corporation, but expressed concern that different departments of the Bank pursue contradictory stances with regard to core labor standards and employment creation.

Doha at the CrossroadsDoha at the Crossroads: The Indian Perspective
On September 25, Indian Commerce Secretary Gopal K. Pillai spoke at the Carnegie Endowment on India’s current perspective on the Doha Round. Exhibiting guarded optimism, Secretary Pillai said that if work proceeds well on issues including services, rules, and preference erosion, in addition to the ongoing negotiations over agricultural and non-agricultural trade, a ministerial meeting could be held as early as March 2008 with the purpose of finally reaching a Doha accord.

Core Labor StandardsCore Labor Standards and Development: Evaluating the Impact
On September 20, Carnegie hosted a discussion about the impact of core labor standards on development. Speakers from the International Labor Office and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative evaluated the outcomes of programs to implement the standards. Carnegie's Sandra Polaski moderated.

bullet U.S. Role
JudisOsama's Book Club: Al Qaeda's Fall Reading Picks
In The New Republic, John Judis discusses the possible meanings behind two of Osama bin Laden's book recommendations made in a recent video: Michael Scheuer's Imperial Hubris and Emmanuel Todd's After the Empire. "Bin Laden is still clearly a champion of radical Islam," writes Judis, "but he may be trying to broaden his appeal by marrying his theological views to the anti-imperialism that Arab revolutionaries championed in the 1960s and '70s."
bullet South Asia
Protests in Myanmar Protests in Myanmar
In the past few weeks, the secretive nation of Burma suddenly landed on the world's front pages, as small demonstrations by monks spiraled into massive protests and triggered a violent crackdown by the military government. Carnegie's Josh Kurlantzick argues in The Boston Globe that behind the unrest lies an explanation that makes the isolated country a critical test of foreign policy. "Burma's brutal ruling junta, which has long kept power through force and fear," he writes, "is taking the next step and transforming itself into one of the world's few totalitarian regimes."
Related:
• Burma’s Buddy: India’s Craven Appeasement in Burma, October 2
• Myanmar: A History of Near-Misses, and Protests, September 27
• Burma Blues, September 26

MusharrafPakistan's Presidential Elections
As expected, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was elected for a third term. However, the implications for Pakistan’s political landscape still remain largely unclear. Carnegie’s Frederic Grare, a leading scholar on Pakistan and South Asia, provides context and analysis in the following work:
• Rethinking Western Strategies Toward Pakistan
• Musharraf in the Twilight
• Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era
• Islam, Militarism, and the 2007–2008 Elections in Pakistan

South Asia from the Inside-OutSouth Asia from the Inside-Out: Domestic Politics and Grand Strategy
On September 27, the Carnegie and the National Bureau of Asian Research hosted an event launching the publication of Strategic Asia 2007-2008: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy. Panelists discussed the meaning of Indian domestic opposition to the U.S.-India civilian nuclear deal, as well as the future of the military regimes in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

bullet Nonproliferation
PerkovichP5+2 Statement on Iran
On September 28, the Foreign Ministers of the United States, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom, with the support of the High Representative of the European Union, released a statement regarding Iran's nuclear program. Carnegie's George Perkovich discusses the statement in a Proliferation Analysis. "IAEA Director General ElBaradei and Iran have won this round," he writes.

SquassoniPartial Progress
In The Guardian, Carnegie's Sharon Squassoni describes elements of the six-party negotiations on North Korea's nuclear plans. She notes that the new agreement goes further than the existing framework in certain areas, and has some positive features. "But," writes Squassoni, "the agreement is troublingly silent on a few things."

bullet Russia/ Eurasia
Russia Lost in Transition Russia—Lost in Transition
In the run up to Russia’s presidential and parliamentary elections Carnegie Moscow Center’s Lilia Shevtsova examines the legacies of Presidents Putin and Boris Yeltsin and how they will shape the upcoming electoral cycle and Russia’s immediate political future. In a new book, Shevtsova writes that Russia’s resurgence in the global arena disguises political stagnation and failure to modernize. She argues that the political regime and the type of capitalism that have been adopted over the last fifteen years are not sustainable in the long term and are unlikely to promote further economic growth and social improvements.

PutinPutin Cements His Grip
In her monthly Washington Post column, Carnegie's Masha Lipman analyzes Russia's future power configuration in the context of President Putin's recent announcement that he would head the United Russia Party in December's parliamentary elections. "Since he seems determined to abide by the constitution and leave office," she writes, "he needs to figure out a way to nevertheless retain power — whether as prime minister, as he recently hinted, or in some other position."

TreninGetting Russia Right
In a recent discussion, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Harvard University's Marvin Kalb marked the publication of Trenin's new book, Getting Russia Right. Trenin argued that Russia should not be seen as a failed democracy, but rather as an evolving authoritarian capitalist society whose transition to a transparent and representative government will happen, but will take generations.

KarabayevKyrgyzstan and Its Role in the Region
Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and Ambassador James F. Collins, director of Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program, discussed Kyrgyzstan and its foreign relations, including Central Asian regional cooperation and closer ties with the U.S., at a September 28 Carnegie event.

TishkovNationalism and Ethnic and Civic Identities in Russia
Professor Valery Tishkov, director of the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology and former Russian Minister for Nationalities discussed Russia's future as a multi-ethnic nation at a Carnegie event on September 19.

bullet Middle East
Turkey's Strategic FutureTurkey's Strategic Future
On October 11, 2007, the Carnegie Endowment held a discussion with three members of Turkey’s Parliament on their country’s strategic identity, American-Turkish relations, and the challenges facing the newly elected Turkish government. The purposes of the discussion were to shed light onto how Turkish leaders define their state’s strategic goals in the early 21st century and to identify ways in which U.S. policy facilitates or impedes cooperation with Turkey.

MubarakEgypt's Opposition Pulls Back
On NPR’s Morning Edition, Carnegie Senior Associate Amr Hamzawy discussed how democracy is taking hold in Egypt since Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's speech in Cairo two years ago. Hamzawy said opposition to Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has lost much of its momentum. Click through to listen to the broadcast.

DunneGetting Over the Fear of Arab Elections
In a Daily Star article, Carnegie Senior Associate Michele Dunne argues that the U.S. should not shy away from promoting elections in the Arab world. She identifies three flaws in the current anti-election thinking: it ignores the realities of the region; it fails to acknowledge how democracy typically emerges; and it leads to "a harmful instrumentalist approach to democracy promotion."

Morocco's parliamentary electionsIt's Good to Be King
Amr Hamzawy writes in Al-Ahram Weekly about the surprising results in Morocco's parliamentary elections, which generated very little change in the country's political scene. "It appears that the parliament's inability to play an influential role and its weakness vis-à-vis the palace led to popular disenchantment with the democratic process," he writes.

Recovering from Arab Spring FeverRecovering from Arab Spring Fever
In a September 28 discussion, Carnegie's Amr Hamzawy and Nathan Brown elaborated on their September National Interest article “Arab Spring Fever,” and argue for shifting the debate about democracy promotion beyond U.S. policy in the Arab region's failed states. Brookings Institution's Suzanne Maloney presented her article, “Fear in Loathing in Tehran,” and warned about the liabilities of direct democracy promotion in Iran.

Revolutionary Guard The Wrong Way to Pressure Iran
In a Washington Post op-ed, Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour argues that classifying Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization would be a disastrous mistake. He writes, “By labeling all 125,000 Revolutionary Guards untouchable "terrorists," Washington would forgo the possibility of exploiting the organization's internal divisions and further decrease the likelihood of diplomatic progress with Tehran.”
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Foreign Policy Web Exclusive:
Seven Questions: The Hired Guns of Iraq
Private military firm Blackwater is in hot water over a shooting incident that left more than a dozen Iraqis dead and prompted new congressional oversight in Washington. For this week’s Seven Questions, FP spoke with military expert Peter Singer about why even this tragedy won’t prompt Americans to stop outsourcing their wars.

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