Carnegie E-news  
Carnegie e-news
October 31, 2007 

Issue Highlights
 bullet Feature: Views of the Iranian people
bullet Iran: New sanctions; IAEA and new Iran report; Putin's visit
bullet China: 17th Party Congress; inflation; Beijing Olympics; gender imbalance
bullet Middle East: Economic reform in Egypt; Arab Reform Bulletin; Palestine and Middle East peace
bullet Awards: Carnegie medals of philanthropy; Goldschmidt wins Joseph A. Burton Forum Award
bullet South Asia: Afghanistan suicide attacks; Strategic Asia 2007-08; South Asian Perspectives; Myanmar democracy
bullet Trade: Readers respond to Carnegie's Doha Round report, Winners and Losers
bullet Eurasia: U.S.-Turkmenistan relations
bullet U.S. Role: Free elections and rule of law
bullet Foreign Policy Magazine: Web Exclusive: Seven Questions: A Conversation with Zbigniew Brzezinski

The Views of the Iranian People


 The Views of the Iranian People
In recent testimony on Capitol Hill, Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour explained the views of the Iranian people and the effect those views have on Iranian and U.S. foreign policy. He stressed that the discontent in Iran is deeply felt, widespread, and largely economic, but factors such as the Iraq war have tempered Iranian desire for abrupt change. The Iranian people have a “fundamentally different image of their country than that espoused by their president,” said Sadjadpour, arguing that the Iranian public has little impact on the country’s foreign policy. He warns that U.S. democracy promotion efforts have been largely unconstructive and counterproductive and that the U.S. should make it clear that it has no intention of undermining Iran’s territorial integrity.
video Click here for written testimony, video, and audio.
 
bullet Iran
RiceNew Sanctions on Iran
Targeting the finances of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Secretary Rice announced that the U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran for supporting terrorism and pursuing nuclear activities. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour says “the sanctions are unlikely to have much of a financial impact on Tehran.” Rather, he argues, “the principal intention of the announcement was…to alert Moscow, and Beijing, and others that they should not even think about doing business with Iran.”

IAEAIAEA Must Not Falter on New Iran Report
In a speech at Harvard University, Pierre Goldschmidt, former IAEA deputy director general and Carnegie visiting scholar, highlights some of the most difficult challenges facing the IAEA in Iran, and concludes, “After five years of unsuccessful efforts by the Agency to ‘close the Iranian file,’ there is no room for complacency, only for undisputable objectivity and clarity in reporting facts and findings in sufficient detail.”

Putin's visit to Iran The Nuclear Gambit with Iran
Carnegie Moscow Center Director Rose Gottemoeller writes about Russian President Putin's recent visit to Iran in a Moscow Times article. Gottemoeller argues that one message in particular should be clear from this visit. "In his last months in power," she writes, "Putin is willing to invest his presidential capital to try to find a solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. He is able and willing to reach out to those who can actually have an effect on the outcome, despite the risks of failure."

bullet Awards
Carnegie Medal of Philantropy 2007 Carnegie Medals of Philanthropy
The Andrew Carnegie Medals of Philanthropy honor individuals who have dedicated their private wealth to public good and who have a sustained an impressive career as philanthropists. Learn more about the 2007 medal recipients, the Carnegie trusts and institutions, and the Carnegie Endowment history.

GoldschmidtCarnegie Scholar Wins Prestigious American Physical Society Award
Carnegie Visiting Scholar Pierre Goldschmidt, former Deputy Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has won the prestigious 2008 Joseph A. Burton Forum Award “for greatly strengthening [the IAEA’s] ability to detect nuclear proliferation activities, and for his courage and integrity.” Read Goldschmidt’s latest Carnegie Policy Outlook, Priority Steps to Strengthen the Nonproliferation Regime.

bullet Eurasia
Olcott and Feigenbaum Turning the Page in U.S.-Turkmenistan Relations
On September 17, the Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion on U.S.-Turkmenistan relations with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Evan A. Feigenbaum. Carnegie Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott chaired the discussion.

bullet Trade
Developing countries and the Doha roundWhat People Are Saying About Winners and Losers
Read the latest responses to Carnegie's report on the Doha Round, Winners and Losers: The Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries, in a New York Times editorial: "What Development Round?" Click through to read what other policymakers and journalists have commented on.

bullet U.S. Role
kaganFree Elections Come First
In a Washington Post article, Robert Kagan challenges the notion that it is a mistake to push for elections in nations that have not first developed the rule of law or strong state institutions. "Free elections may not guarantee liberalism," he writes, "but liberalism cannot exist without free elections. This will not be welcome news for those who'd rather believe that autocracy would simply vanish without any great effort on the part of the democracies."

JudisMoran Down: The Groups Who Cried Anti-Semitism
In The New Republic Online, Carnegie Visiting Scholar John Judis discusses the anti-Semetic accusations Virginia Representative Jim Moran has faced for his comments about Jews, Iraq and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Judis questions the validity of these accusations and expounds upon the implication that this response has for American politics at large.
bullet Middle East
NazifEconomic Reform in Egypt
Carnegie Middle East Center’s Sufyan Alissa finds that economic reform, considered a priority by the Egyptian government, has not been fully effective for three reasons: it lacks public support, Egypt has failed to foster a competitive business environment, and Egypt lacks dynamic and transparent institutions. Alissa argues in a new Carnegie Paper that Egypt lacks the institutional capacity to implement better-coordinated reform programs that address its socioeconomic realities, including widespread poverty and unemployment, high inflation, and a soaring public debt.
Related article: Reducing the Arab Institutional Deficit

Arab Reform Bulletin Arab Reform Bulletin
The October issue features:
• The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's retreat from liberal positions
• Prospects for Jordan's parliamentary elections
• Challenges faced by the Bahraini opposition in parliament
• Human rights organizations and non-state actors such as Hizballah
• Saudi law and protection of rights
• The Millennium Challenge Corporation and Arab states
• Plus information on the new Moroccan cabinet, debates in the Arab media, and much more.

Palestinian Perspectives on a Middle East Peace MeetingPalestinian Perspectives on Middle East Peace
On October 25, Maen Areikat, Gregory Khalil, and Khaled Elgindy presented Palestinian perspectives on the proposed Middle East peace summit. Carnegie's Nathan Brown addressed the current situation and the issue of the internal Palestinian split. Carnegie’s Michele Dunne moderated. Click here for transcript and summary.

Arab States MapArab Political Systems
Newly updated, this online resource provides easily accessible baseline information about the political systems of Arab countries and information about new reforms.

bullet South Asia
Grare and FairSuicide Attacks in Afghanistan
Before the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud on September 9, 2001, suicide attacks were considered alien to Afghanistan. They began to appear with regularity in 2005 and 2006 and are now commonplace. Christine Fair, former UNAMA political affairs officer, discusses her UNAMA report on the challenges of combating these attacks.

Strategic AsiaStrategic Asia 2007-08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy
Edited by Carnegie Senior Associate Ashley Tellis, with contributions by leading Asia specialists including Carnegie Visiting Scholar Frederic Grare, this book, the seventh in NBR's strategic Asia series, examines the varied political transitions and internal changes occurring in pivotal Asian states and evaluates the impact on Asian foreign policymaking and strategy.

myanmarRangoon Squad—Burma’s Wicked Apologists
Joshua Kurlantzick writes in The New Republic about the "Burma exception" argument. "Even after the recent protests in Burma," he writes, "a group of influential Burma experts maintain the idea that the country simply doesn't contain the ingredients for a functional democracy and won't for years to come." Kurlantzick argues that this argument is both nefarious and wrong, justifying the junta's policies and providing an excuse for Burma's neighbors to ignore the reformers and protesters.

South Asian PerspectivesSouth Asian Perspectives
Indian commentators express outrage at India's response to the violence in Myanmar. The October issue also includes perspectives on Bhutto's return to Pakistan, the challenge of terrorism in northwest Pakistan, and coverage of the upcoming elections in Nepal.
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Foreign Policy Web Exclusive:
A Conversation with Zbigniew Brzezinski
Putin’s Russia is growing more authoritarian at home and increasingly aggressive abroad. China’s global clout seems to expand by the day. And in the Middle East, a possible conflict with Iran looms on the horizon. For insights on this dangerous new world, FP turned to Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. national security advisor, author, and all-around foreign-policy guru.
bullet China
17th Party Congress 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
On October 24, Carnegie hosted a seminar featuring guest speaker Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy and Carnegie Senior Associates Albert Keidel and Michael Swaine. Moderated by Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews, the event evaluated the implication of 17th Party Congress on China's future policies from the political, economic, and military perspectives.
Click here for transcript.

PeiChina's New Leadership
In a recent Financial Times interview, Senior Associate Minxin Pei argues, "the headline outcome of the congress — the appointment of Hu’s possible successors — will have practically no effect on how China fares in the next five years, while succession-induced paralysis will most certainly delay the key decisions imperative to China’s future stability."

Pei also assessed the political prospect of President Hu Jintao in an article written prior to the 17th Party Congress, entitled "How Hu Can Break Free from Political Gridlock."

Keidel Inflation Returns to China
Senior Associate Albert Keidel discussed his latest policy brief, China’s Looming Crisis—Inflation Returns, during a seminar on October 24, 2007. Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute provided comments and critique, while Pieter Bottelier of Johns Hopkins University School of International Studies moderated the discussion. 
Click here for transcript.

BeijingThe Battle of Beijing
Foreign Policy Editor-in-Chief Moises Naim predicts that the upcoming Olympic Games in Beijing will produce widespread clashes outside of the athletic arenas. "The reality is that thousands of protesters with causes that enjoy public support around the world—and in China—will stage highly visible and creative protests during the Olympic Games," he writes. "Therefore, the government will inevitably attempt to control and repress the activists."

KurlantzickChina’s Future: A Nation of Single Men?
In the Los Angeles TImes, Carnegie Visiting Scholar Joshua Kurlantzick comments on the implications of growing gender imbalances across Asia as incidences of selective abortion rise. China, in particular, is facing the potential creation of a "permanent angry underclass capable of being dangerously exploited," as well as being on track to be grayer than the United States by 2030. Kurlantzick proposes a number of measures which could direct China back towards balanced gender ratios.
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