Carnegie e-news

November 28, 2007 

Middle East
Inside Palestine
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas meet in Annapolis, Md., this week to begin discussions in an effort to set the outlines of a final peace agreement. A special edition of Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin, “Inside Palestine,” provides new articles and interviews with an updated look at the most pressing political, economic, and social issues facing the Palestinians:

• interview with Palestinian parliamentarian and third way leader Mustafa Barghouthi;
• articles on how life in the West Bank and Gaza has changed since Fatah and Hamas split;
• analyses on the state of the Palestinian economy, institutional reform, and civil society; and
• updated data profile of Palestine.

Related: And the Guest of Honor is…Missing

Prolonged Lebanese Stalemate Threat to Regional Stability
The failure of the Lebanese parliament to elect a new president signifies a dangerous political paralysis which threatens regional stability. Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, argues in a new web commentary that the U.S. and Russia are essential to the diplomatic efforts and should use their influence with the opposing coalitions and their regional backers if an agreement is to be reached.

Related Commentary: The Presidential Crisis in Lebanon, Salem, November 13

U.S. Steps Up Raids on Al-Qaeda
Carnegie Middle East Program Director Marina Ottaway appeared on NPR's Weekend Edition Sunday to discuss al-Qaeda in Iraq. Although there are reduced levels of violence in Iraq, several recent raids have targeted members of the extremist group. Ottaway comments on the relevance of al-Qaeda's apparent weakness to the recent reduction of violence inside Iraq, how the government of Iraq can begin to meet its diplomatic goals, and what steps the U.S. can take. Click here to listen to the broadcast.

Shifting Western Views on Islam
In Al-Ahram Weekly, Senior Associate Amr Hamzawy addresses the four main categories of Islamic movements emerging in the Western perception of Islamists. "A major shift is taking place in the way decision-makers in the U.S. and major European countries view the political role of Islamic movements in the Arab world and also in the way they regard the perils such movements pose for Western interests," he writes.

Nonproliferation
Pressures and Benefits Must Be Made Clearer to Iran
Carnegie’s George Perkovich, says the latest IAEA report on Iran written by Director General Mohamed ElBaradei only underscores the importance of increasing efforts to resolve the nuclear enrichment dispute diplomatically. He favors increasing the pressure from the UN Security Council and others, and suggests the possible benefits to Iran if they engage in negotiations should be better defined. He argues, “The Iranians haven’t felt the need to negotiate yet because they haven’t felt enough pressure. And they also haven’t seen any kind of potential reward, so they are holding back.”

Congratulations to Iran
The recent IAEA report is a victory for Iran: they have succeeded in "gaming the IAEA while continuing to advance its uranium enrichment program," writes Carnegie Visiting Scholar Pierre Goldschmidt. In a new Proliferation Analysis, he comments on the implications this has for international security and the actions that must be taken to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Germany's Pivotal Role in the Iranian Nuclear Standoff
In recent months, Presidents George Bush and Nicolas Sarkozy have called for greater coercive measures against Tehran for its continued uranium-enrichment activities in defiance of legally binding UN Security Council resolutions. In a new Carnegie Proliferation Analysis, Carnegie Junior Fellow Georgina Jones writes about German-Iranian economic ties, Berlin's foreign policy quandary, and the need for German support of European sanctions.

South Asia
Musharraf and the Con Game
General Musharraf is playing an age-old game: through the elimination of moderate opponents, he seeks to secure continued U.S. support for his regime. Carnegie Senior Associate Robert Kagan argues that the idea of supporting dictators to prevent the takeover by radical groups is just as flawed today as it was during the Cold War.

Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan
On November 20, International Crisis Group's Mark Schneider spoke at the Carnegie Endowment on the state of emergency recently declared in Pakistan. Schneider says that President Musharraf's emergency violates the constitution and moves the country further from democracy. He also argues that the U.S. ought to impose some conditions on Musharraf and support Pakistan's civil society and democratic institutions. Carnegie’s Frederic Grare moderated the event.

Is India Arriving?
On November 13, Stanford University's Rafiq Dossani spoke about India's "arrival" as a global power in terms of economic growth and international prestige, as well as the areas in which India still lacks: the non-market sector, widespread poverty, and social democracy. Despite these challenges, he is optimistic about changes in domestic politics.

South Asian Perspectives: November Issue
The November issue features Pakistan’s recent state of emergency, India’s reunification of the Hindutva Bharatiya Janata Party, and the secular Janata Dal, the release of the Tehelka report—results of Ashish Khetan’s six-month investigation into the 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, and more.
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Russia/Eurasia
Is Russia Becoming Our Enemy Again?
In an Oxford-style debate, part of the Intelligence Squared U.S. series which airs on National Public Radio, Carnegie Vice President Mark Medish argued that although the current U.S.-Russian relationship is suboptimal, it does not indicate a trend toward a new Cold War. Russia and the U.S. still have many common national security interests. The audio of the debate is available online.

Cool Peace or Cold War?
Carnegie’s Mark Medish appeared on Minnesota Public Radio on November 12 to discuss Russia's connection to Iran and its bilateral relationship with the West. Click here to listen to the broadcast.

Where is Russia Heading?
In a Financial Times discussion, Carnegie's Dmitri Trenin answered questions about the future of Putin in Russia, Russia's relationship with Iran, human rights, and Russia's economy.

Kosovo: A Case for a European Dayton
As expected, European, American, and Russian diplomats failed to negotiate a settlement on Kosovo’s future status. In advance of this stalemate, Dmitri Trenin wrote about the prospects for Kosovo's independence and argued for a "European Dayton" approach to the conflict resolution process.

Egypt
Egypt’s National Democratic Party: The Search for Legitimacy
Carnegie’s Michele Dunne analyzes recent developments in the general congress of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Among other issues, she discusses the efforts of the so-called new guard at reengineering the party and combating the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Party Platform
Carnegie hosted an event to interpret and analyze the Muslim Brotherhood’s new party platform in Egypt. Carnegie’s Amr Hamzawy and Nathan Brown, and Marc Lynch of George Washington University participated in the November 14 discussion.

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