Carnegie e-news

December 18, 2007 

Nonproliferation
Understanding the NIE
In a new proliferation analysis, Carnegie Senior Associate Sharon Squassoni discusses the implications of the unclassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran. She explores why the NIE has become controversial and what it really says—and does not say—about Iran's intentions and capabilities.

Assessing the National Intelligence Estimate
While the NIE technically removes the “nuclear weapon program” label from Iranian uranium enrichment and plutonium production activities, Iran continues to pose a potential real threat, argues Carnegie's George Perkovich in a new analysis. Perkovich updates his 2005 Report, Changing Iran’s Nuclear Interests, which suggested the possibility that Iran decided in 2003 to cease clandestine activities in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Weighing the Impact of Iran's Uranium Program
Carnegie's Pierre Goldschmidt recently appeared on NPR's Morning Edition to discuss the impact of Iran's uranium enrichment program in the context of the December 3 release of the unclassified NIE on Iran. Even if Iran has, as reported, stopped its efforts to build a nuclear weapon, it continues to pursue uranium enrichment and other technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons. According to Goldschmidt, the NIE did not draw a clear distinction between the intention to develop nuclear weapons and the intention to develop nuclear weapons capability.

What Will Happen to Diplomatic Efforts with Iran?
In a recent Weekend Edition Sunday on NPR, Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour spoke with Michele Kelemen on Iranian–U.S. negotiating positions in light of the release of the latest NIE. U.S. intelligence services say that Iran does not have an active nuclear weapons program; Russia and China are likely to continue to resist the tough diplomatic approach favored by the U.S. If Washington drops those conditions, it could look weak in the face of Iranian hardliners.

Time to Talk to Iran
In the Washington Post, Carnegie Senior Associate Robert Kagan suggests a new course of action for the Bush Administration following the release of the NIE on Iran: opening direct talks between the United States and Iran. "With its policy tools broken, the Bush administration can sit around isolated for the next year," writes Kagan. "Or it can seize the initiative, and do the next administration a favor, by opening direct talks with Tehran."

Risks and Realities: The "New Nuclear Energy Revival"
In Arms Control Today, Carnegie's Sharon Squassoni writes about the "new nuclear energy revival." "Concern about greenhouse gas emissions and energy security combined with forecasts of strong growth in electricity demand has awakened dormant interest in nuclear energy," she writes. "Yet, the industry has not yet fully addressed the issues that have kept global nuclear energy capacity roughly the same for the last two decades."

Eurasia
Integrating Central Asia into the World Economy
On October 22-23, the Carnegie Endowment and the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, in partnership with the Asian Development Bank and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program held an international conference featuring presentations by Central Asian and American government officials and private sector representatives from Central Asia and neighboring countries. Click through to read the conference report and supporting materials.

Call for Applications 2008
Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security
The Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellowship for International Relations and Security is open to candidates who have recently received their doctorate in social and political sciences or economics and whose research focuses on topics of international relations and security. Fellowships are granted for a duration of 24 months to prepare Fellows for a career in policy-oriented and international research at renowned think tanks and political consulting research institutes. Fellows spend three eight-month stays at research institutions or think tanks participating in the program — at least one on the Eastern, and one on the Western side of the Atlantic. All application materials must be submitted by February 15, 2008. Click here for more information.

Energy/Climate
Financing Energy Efficiency in China
With the close of the Bali climate summit, a new report by Carnegie's William Chandler goes beneath China's laudable energy-saving policies and gives a path-breaking, detailed, and on-the-ground description of the obstacles energy-efficiency businesses still face. The paper looks beyond complaints about red tape and illogical taxes, and suggests specific, feasible steps Chinese officials could take to reconcile their good energy intentions with their practices. Chandler argues that restrictions on debt financing and foreign equity investment, unfavorable tax policies, and even the UN’s emissions trading system all discourage foreign investment in clean energy in China.

Related: China's Performance at Bali Talks

Middle East
Incumbent Regimes and the “King’s Dilemma” in the Arab World
Despite passing considerable economic and social reforms, Arab regimes continue to avoid substantive political reforms that would jeopardize their own power. In a new Carnegie Paper Carnegie's Marina Ottaway and Michele Dunne argue that emerging, reform-minded leaders in Arab nations face a dilemma — globalization and better public access to information are prompting calls for modernization, yet history shows that even limited reforms introduced from the top often increase, rather than decrease, bottom-up demand for more radical change, as in the case of the Iranian revolution.

Arab Reform Bulletin
The December edition of the Arab Reform Bulletin features:

• What U.S. presidential hopefuls say about Middle East democracy
• Lebanese civil society efforts to combat sectarianism
• How Mauritanian democracy is faring
• How Libyan laws constrict free expression
• Higher education reforms in Saudi Arabia

Plus news updates on Lebanon, Palestine, political developments across the Arab region, new publications, and much more.

Mauritanian Democracy Needs Prosperity
Mauritania, an often-ignored country on the western periphery of the Arab world, ranked 50th out of 169 countries in the Reporters without Borders' Press Freedom Index 2007—the highest among Arab countries. Carnegie’s Salma Waheedi discusses the country’s progress in a Daily Star op-ed. “Consolidation and progress toward democracy in Mauritania depend on the government's ability to address its people's most pressing concerns, namely poverty and unemployment."

South Asia
Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror
On December 17, Carnegie's Ashley J. Tellis presented the findings of his new policy brief, Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror. Tellis contends that if the U.S. wants a stronger Pakistani commitment to the war on terror, it must first recognize that Pakistan’s poor performance cannot be attributed simply to malfeasance by Pakistan’s military elite.

The Post-Revolutionary Disappearing Act—and Its Dreadful Consequences
In The New Republic, Carnegie's Joshua Kurlantzick writes about the aftermath of the so-called Burmese revolution. "Just three months ago, the world watched, transfixed, as thousands of Burmese monks marched through the streets of Rangoon," he writes. "Three months later, the protests already seem long ago. After making a few initial concessions to the international community, the Burmese junta has stood firm."

Fueling Options: The Future of India's Energy Security
India's energy needs will continue to rise dramatically as GDP growth remains high, but demand is expected to outpace supply. Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, correspondent for The Hindustan Times spoke at the Carnegie Endowment on December 5 about India's energy challenges and options.

South Asian Perspectives
In the December issue of South Asian Perspectives, Indian and Bangladeshi commentators sound off about the costs of fighting global warming and the costs of not fighting it. Also, views on the lead up to the Pakistani parliamentary elections and the polls in Gujarat.
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