January 24, 2008 

Middle East
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s Political Party Platform
The recent release of a draft political platform by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is a sign that real developments are occurring in Egyptian politics. While the Muslim Brotherhood is prevented by Egypt's government from forming a political party, the release of a platform signaled what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so. In a new Carnegie Paper, Senior Associates Nathan Brown and Amr Hamzawy analyze the platform's mixed signals—surprising progressive reforms; regressive, controversial stances; and the chances of achieving a consensus on the anticipated final document.

Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World
In the new book Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World, editors Marina Ottaway and Julia Choucair-Vizoso evaluate the changes taking place in the region and argue that the vast array of reforms implemented by Arab governments over the last two decades have presented a façade of reform while maintaining the concentration of power among authoritarian rulers. Beyond the Façade forces us to recognize the reality of conflicting interests and the limitations of external actors to bring about political reform, while drawing lessons on how to make international democracy promotion more effective.

President Bush's Visit to the Middle East
Carnegie's Amr Hamzawy appeared on BBC Radio to discuss President Bush's visit to the Middle East. Hamzawy argued that Bush’s return to the region to invest in diplomacy is a welcome development, but the poor domestic situation in Israel and Palestine make significant gains unrealistic. Bush is likely to make more progress on his Iran agenda—pulling Gulf countries closer to the American perception of Iran as the main threat to Western and Arab interests.

Trade
Poverty and Development Expert Joins Carnegie
Carnegie welcomes Eduardo Zepeda, a leading poverty and development expert, to its Trade, Equity, and Development Program. Zepeda, an expert on the economies of Brazil, Kenya, and Mexico, will focus his work at the Endowment on global trade negotiations and their implications for developing regions and countries. In particular, his research will address policies of poverty eradication, such as boosting employment and promoting other income-generating activities.

Russian Isolationism
'Missing No Blows' In Moscow
Masha Lipman, editor of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Pro et Contra, comments on current Russian foreign policy and its implications for both international and domestic politics in the Washington Post. She believes the "slide toward Soviet-style isolationism" is damaging to Russia and that today, "such policies appear irrational and anachronistic."

Putin? Really?
Carnegie's Michael McFaul takes on the argument that Vladimir Putin's strong hand has been responsible for Russia's economic resurgence, in a Slate article. Noting that "the positive change that has occurred between the 1990s and the last several years has little if anything to do with Putin," McFaul argues that the Putin administration's concentration of state power has actually impeded economic growth, not encouraged it.

China's Economy
China’s Economic Fluctuations
New research challenges conventional wisdom in Washington regarding China’s economy—the importance of its trade surplus, the size of its GDP, and the scale of its poverty. An updated report from Carnegie Senior Associate Albert Keidel confirms that China’s growth and inflation risks are not trade-related but are instead driven by domestic forces. A recent World Bank announcement also confirmed Keidel’s findings that China’s economy and GDP per capita are 40 percent smaller than earlier analysis had asserted, and that Chinese poverty levels involve 300 million people under the World Bank’s dollar-a-day standard rather than 100 million as previously thought.

A Crash is China’s Chance for Reforms
In the Financial TImes, Carnegie Senior Associate Minxin Pei and Junior Fellow Wayne Chen argue that the likelihood of a crash in the Chinese stock market in the not-too-distant future has recently increased because of rising inflation in China and a global economic slow-down. Although most analysts believe that such a collapse will have minimal impact on the real economy, Pei and Chen write that "such thinking ignores the fact that, when it comes, a Chinese stock market crash will produce serious political consequences."

An Unlikely New Ally
Although most of the world sees U.S. behavior under President Bush as "an unmitigated disaster," China has benefited dramatically from declining U.S. influence, leaving Chinese leaders quite satisfied with U.S.-China relations. In Newsweek, Carnegie's Minxin Pei comments on Chinese views below the top levels of government, which he claims fall into three categories: the sophisticated realists, the conservative nationalists, and the cosmopolitan elite.

Nuclear Expansion
Mapping Global Nuclear Expansion
Carnegie's Sharon Squassoni mapped out three different futures for nuclear energy expansion worldwide. With maps of reactor capacities, uranium enrichment, and spent fuel reprocessing from 2007 to 2050, Squassoni concluded that the proliferation consequences of a significant nuclear energy expansion could be serious. However, goals are unlikely to be met for structural reasons. Even in the absence of a significant expansion, the world could have many more "new" nuclear states, in regions of considerable proliferation concern.

Carnegie International
Pioneering The First Global Think Tank
With operations in Moscow, Beijing, Beirut, Brussels, and Washington, Carnegie has transformed itself from a think tank on international issues to the first truly multinational—ultimately global—think tank. Coming on the eve of the first anniversary of Carnegie's New Vision launch, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a grantmaking foundation, announced a $3 million investment by the Corporation in the Carnegie China Program in Washington and Beijing.
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