Carnegie E-news  
February 22, 2008 



Pakistan Post-Election
Pakistan Post-ElectionPakistan's two main opposition parties have agreed to form a coalition government following their victory over President Pervez Musharraf's allies in Pakistan’s general elections. Carnegie experts provided post-election analysis on the implications of the February 18 elections.

Grare: Pakistan Facing 'Governmental Instability'
Tellis: Pakistan’s Mixed Record on Anti-Terrorism
Kurlantzick: Déjà Vu All Over Again
The Pakistani Army and Post-Election Scenarios
Full list of resources and analysis


Medvedev and Putin


A George Washington Moment, Putin Style

Carnegie's Mark Medish recounts in Foreign Policy how Russian President Putin, after opting to relinquish the nation’s top job, chose his successor, Dmitry Medvedev. "When Russian voters go to the presidential polls on March 2, they will affirm a foregone conclusion," writes Medish. However, "a colorful and contested presidential election process actually took place, though it wasn't on the campaign trail or at the ballot box. The real Russian election occurred in a black box—namely, inside the soul of Vladimir Putin."
 
bullet U.S. Role in the World
Missile InterceptorDon't Panic About Space Weapons
When the U.S. launched a missile to destroy a dead satellite that would have otherwise re-entered the atmosphere and possibly threatened populated areas with a toxic load of hydrazine fuel, it resurrected fears about the so-called weaponization of space. Carnegie Associate Ashley J. Tellis comments in the Wall Street Journal on the ongoing “space weapon” debate and praises the Bush administration for rejecting a joint Russian-Chinese arms treaty aimed at banning such weapons.

CastroA Card to Play for Cuba's Freedom
Carnegie's Robert Kagan comments in the The Washington Post on the long-awaited resignation of Fidel Castro and recommends a "more hopeful course" in U.S. policy towards Cuba. "To encourage Cuba’s broader transition to democracy, the United States should be more than a passive spectator," he writes. "It can now use the leverage it has long held but been unable to use while Fidel was in charge."

RiceAssessing Secretary of State Rice's Reform of U.S. Foreign Assistance
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s ambitious reorganization of U.S. foreign assistance efforts is deeply, perhaps irredeemably flawed, but did produce some positive results, concludes a new paper from the Carnegie Endowment. Former senior USAID official Gerald Hyman analyzes the objectives, implementation, and impact of the Secretary’s effort undertaken last year to create a cohesive foreign assistance program fully integrated with U.S. national security policy.


SadjadpourUnder the Thinking Cap: U.S.-Iran Relations
Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour describes developments in U.S.-Iranian relations in a Washington Prism interview. “Recently I think there has been a period of confidence-building and de-escalation between the United States and Iran after the release of the National Intelligence Estimate and statements from U.S. officials in Iraq that Iran is beginning to play a more constructive role there.”

bullet Trade Equity and Development
GresserFreedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy
The Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion with Edward Gresser on his new book, Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy, on February 15. Gresser argues that although American trade policies of the last sixty years have achieved many of the goals envisioned by their liberal founders, those same policies bear embarrassing gaps.

MilanovicDeveloping Countries Worse Off Than Once Thought
Carnegie’s Branko Milanovic discusses new World Bank estimates of purchasing power parity for Yale Global. "With the study's release, our view of the world has changed," he writes. "While economists previously thought that U.S. GDP per capita was 6 or 12 times higher than that of China and India, respectively, these numbers have been revised to 10 and 20 times. The new numbers show global inequality to be significantly greater than even the most pessimistic authors had thought."
bullet Middle East
The Road Out of GazaThe Road Out of Gaza
The Middle East peace process will fail unless Palestinian political institutions are rebuilt, argues a new paper from the Carnegie Endowment. In The Road Out of Gaza, Carnegie’s Nathan J. Brown contends that the international efforts to rebuild Palestine are in reality counterproductive and suggests that a long-term international strategy based on restoring Palestinian institutions, encouraging a Fatah–Hamas agreement, and emphasizing regional diplomacy.

HamzawyBeyond Redundancy
In Al-Ahram Weekly, Carnegie's Amr Hamzawy argues that the debate over the future political direction of the Arab world has too often been reduced to a set of absurdly simplistic premises. "After decades of oppression the Arab people have caught a glimpse of the possibilities of participating in public affairs and they are clamoring for more," he writes. "If the state does not respond to these popular aspirations through a process of democratic assimilation, Arab societies will explode into religious, ethnic and class conflicts of a magnitude hard to imagine."

BeirutRazor Edge
In Al-Ahram Weekly, The Carnegie Middle East Center’s Omayma Abdel-Latif discusses recent political developments in Lebanon. "During Lebanon's protracted political crisis, street politics has been afforded highest prominence," she writes. "The issue comes down to numbers: how many people can each current mobilize in a show of strength that inevitably leads to ever- heightening tension backed by ever more vitriolic rhetoric."

bullet South Asia
monkPre-Emptive Strike
In a Time Magazine article, Carnegie's Joshua Kurlantzick discusses the ongoing struggle in Burma and offers recommendations for the international community. "The remarkable courage shown by Burma's marching monks last September captured the world's imagination. The protests encouraged Western governments to broaden sanctions," he writes. "Sadly, this strategy will prove as ineffective as past such actions against the junta."

KurlantzickProfit Versus the Prophet: Islamic Law Has Made Muslims Into Creative Bankers
Carnegie’s Joshua Kurlantzick writes in the Los Angeles Times about the rise of an Islamic banking industry in Malaysia and its effects on globalization. "As Islamic finance has become a pillar of Malaysia's economy, some moderate Middle Eastern states have tried to copy its successful model," he writes. "But as Islamic finance has become more mainstream, conservative Muslims have criticized it as not strict enough.”

bullet Junior Fellows Conference
Ahmadinejad and MusarrafA New Authoritarian Moment? Emerging Alternatives to Liberal
The Carnegie Endowment is pleased to announce the third annual Carnegie Junior Fellows Conference, the premier event for young professionals in foreign policy. The April 29 conference will address the topic: "A New Authoritarian Moment? Emerging Alternatives to Liberal Democracy.” Click here for program information and application forms. Applications are due on March 14, 2008.
bullet Russia
MedvedevCar With 2 Steering Wheels
Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nikolai Petrov writes in the Moscow Times about the policy statements of Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to Petrov, "Medvedev's concept for the country's economic development and the improvement of demographics looks more sensible than Putin's call to quadruple labor productivity over the next 12 years and increase the average lifespan by a few years." However, "Putin's entire administrative and political model is designed to guarantee that it won't accomplish much of anything – especially when there will be a new president sitting at the helm."

IvanovSergei Ivanov’s Strategic Breakthrough
Carnegie Moscow Center Director Rose Gottemoeller reviews U.S.-Russia arms control issues in a Nezavisimaya Gazeta article. In the context of a recent speech by Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov. "While Russian bombers were resuming threatening patrols off Europe, Japan and Alaska, Moscow did not seem ready to engage in a major international discussion on the total elimination of nuclear weapons," she writes. "Sergei Ivanov's speech in Munich reversed this impression."

bullet Nonproliferation
Pierre GoldschmidtNuclear Renaissance and Non-Proliferation
During the 24th Conference of the Nuclear Societies in Israel, Carnegie's Pierre Goldschmidt stressed the importance of ensuring that the future nuclear expansion is as safe and secure as possible, and that now is the time to put stronger barriers to proliferation in place.


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