Carnegie E-News

March 6, 2008


	Issue Highlights Russian Election Middle East U.S. Election Cuba Trade, Equity, and Development South Asia Nonproliferation Junior Fellows Conference Carnegie on FORA.tv Foreign Policy Magazine		Russia's Presidential Election Russia’s March 2 election marked the formal transition between President Putin and his successor Dmitri Medvedev. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace provides context and perspective on Russia’s presidential succession and its implication for Russia’s domestic and foreign policy, the state of U.S.-Russia relations, and issues related to defense, regional security, and nonproliferation. • Presidential Succession • Russian Foreign Policy • Experts • Additional Resources

The New Middle East
Confrontational U.S. policy has tried to create a “New Middle East,” but by ignoring the realities of the region, the United States has exacerbated existing conflicts and created additional problems, argues a new report—described by Newsweek as "brutally accurate"—from the Carnegie Endowment. By focusing on three critical clusters of countries—Iran-Iraq, Lebanon-Syria, Palestine-Israel—and on the three most pressing issues—nuclear proliferation, sectarianism, and the challenge of political reform—the authors provide a new direction for U.S. policy that engages all regional actors patiently and consistently on major conflicts to develop compromise solutions.

On March 4, Carnegie experts discussed the new report during a panel discussion moderated by Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews.

Event Video and Transcript

Middle East
Abbas and Olmert Carnegie Middle East Resources and Analysis
With U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in the Middle East for the latest round of talks in the peace process, violence in Gaza has derailed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Carnegie experts in Washington and the Middle East offer commentary and online resources—in English and Arabic—to provide context on the current issues facing the region, including:
• Israel-Palestinian Peace Process
• U.S. Policy in the Middle East
• Presidential Stalemate in Lebanon
• Middle East Domestic Politics
• Iran
• Iraq
• Syria
• Democracy Promotion

Ahmadinedad's Iraq Visit Analysis: Iran's Influence in Iraq
Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour provides in-depth commentary for NBC News on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's historic visit to Iraq, Iranian influence in Iraq and implications for U.S.-Iranian relations. Click through to listen to the broadcast.

Related: Sadjadpour on BBC's The World Tonight.

Arab Reform Bulletin
The March issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin features:

•How Arab governments are cooperating to muzzle satellite media
•Fatah's attempts to reunify in the face of the challenge from Hamas
•How Moroccan Islamists are dealing with electoral defeat
•The status of Iraqi national reconcilation
•The tenuous connection between announced oil reserves and reality
•Plus news developments, debates, new publications, and more

Nonproliferation
Bushehr Take Two: Iran's Plan for Nuclear Compliance
In a new Proliferation Analysis, Carnegie’s Sharon Squassoni and Nima Gerami update the previous Iran Compliance Timeline, which addresses the International Atomic Energy Agency’s work plan for resolving all outstanding questions concerning Iran’s past nuclear activities. According to Squassoni and Gerami, “the February IAEA safeguards report on Iran indicates that the answers provided by Iran on all but two issues are ‘consistent’ or ‘not inconsistent’ with its information and on schedule (if not earlier) with the agreed-upon work plan. However, the final outstanding issues are those most closely associated with weaponization.”

Junior Fellows Conference
Ahmadinejad and Musarraf A New Authoritarian Moment? Emerging Alternatives to Liberal Democracy
The Carnegie Endowment is pleased to announce the third annual Carnegie Junior Fellows Conference, the premier event for young professionals in foreign policy. The April 29 conference will address the topic: "A New Authoritarian Moment? Emerging Alternatives to Liberal Democracy.” Click here for program information and application forms. Applications are due on March 14, 2008.

Trade, Equity, and Development
Zepeda Latin America's Progress on Gender Equality
Though Latin America has shown notable progress in achieving gender equality, poor women in the region still face limited opportunities for work. In a new analysis published by the International Poverty Centre, Carnegie Senior Associate Eduardo Zepeda unravels the complexity of women’s labor force participation in Latin America: many poor women can only find work performing domestic chores for rich or middle-class households, which in turn enables wealthier women to secure higher wage employment outside the household.

Cuba
Castro Cuba After Fidel Castro
Fidel Castro’s resignation as president of Cuba raises new questions about the island nation’s internal succession of power and what possible shifts in U.S. policy might be on the horizon. Foreign Policy Editor-in-Chief Moisés Naím describes emerging political factions jockeying for dominance in the post-Fidel era. One favors a Chinese-inspired model, with an open economy, tightly controlled politics, and military management of state-owned businesses. Another holds to Fidel's socialist dream of a centralized economy with political power firmly concentrated in the State and the party.

Related:
• Kurlantzick: End the Cuban Embargo
• Kagan: A Card to Play for Freedom

South Asia
Grare Anatomy of a Fallacy: The Senlis Council and Narcotics in Afghanistan
Afghanistan produces most of the opium consumed in Europe and Russia. In 2005, the Senlis Council, an international drug policy think tank, proposed the creation of a licensing system in Afghanistan which would allow the cultivation of opium for the production of painkillers. But, in a new Working Paper for CIGI, Carnegie's Frederic Grare argues that the current policies may be optimum given both Afghanistan's present situation and the structural problems inherent in the global war against drugs.

Tellis Pakistan’s Record on Terrorism: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance
Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis discusses Pakistan’s record on terrorism in the Washington Quarterly. “That the rejuvenation of al Qaeda and the Taliban is due in large part to their ability to secure a sanctuary in Pakistan has incensed Americans across the political spectrum,” he writes. “Because Washington has provided Islamabad with almost $10 billion in overt security and economic assistance since 2002 and continues to compensate the Pakistani military for its counterterrorism efforts with roughly $1 billion in annual reimbursements, many U.S. leaders are beginning to wonder whether Pakistan is in fact doing its part in the ‘war on terror’."

Carnegie on FORA.tv

The Carnegie Endowment is pleased to announce that videos from its events available on the Carnegie website will also be available for viewing on www.fora.tv.FORA.tv, a leading provider of online video content focused on discourse, discussions and debates surrounding the world's most compelling political, social and cultural issues.

U.S. Election

U.S. Presidential Selection Process Transparent but Dominated by Money
The 2008 presidential primaries are being avidly followed both at home and abroad. With all the rules for picking a party nominee, including the much-discussed democratic superdelegates, some U.S. voters have begun questioning the extent to which the process is democratic. Carnegie’s Thomas Carothers discusses the U.S. system for picking presidential candidates in a Council on Foreign Relations interview.

Judis

American Adam
Carnegie's John Judis writes in the New Republic about the political phenomenon of Barack Obama, considering his presidential candidacy in the context of America's fascination with the Biblical figure of Adam. "As literary critic R.W.B. Lewis wrote in 1955, in his wonderful book The American Adam, early generations of Americans became captivated by the idea that they could create a future without reference to the past," writes Judis. "Yet the past—in the form of race or war or deeply held partisan animosities—has a way of lingering around."

Buckley

"He Was A Rebel, But Not A Heretic"
In the New Republic, Judis comments on the passing and legacy of William F. Buckley, who died on February 27. "Buckley will, of course, be remembered as the man who was most singly responsible for the modern conservative movement," he writes. However, notes Judis, "as conservatives actually gained power, Buckley found himself once again standing athwart history and yelling stop."

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