March 19, 2008 



The Fifth Anniversary of the Iraq War

Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews discusses the lessons learned and the implications of the invasion of Iraq—an empowered Iran, a destabilized region, and a politically divisive debate over troop withdrawal. Mathews argues that while a withdrawal of U.S. troops would precipitate short-term violence, a continued presence would further increase regional tensions. Though the “surge” was intended to reduce the level of violence to create breathing room for political reconciliation, there has been no actual political progress, and patience among disenfranchised Sunni groups is quickly running out.

Also in this issue:
Mathews on the effectiveness of the "surge" (BBC Radio 4)
The full range of Carnegie's Iraq resources

US soldier in fron of Iraqi flag

 

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MathewsAnniversary of the Iraq War and lessons learned in the last five years

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photos Quicktime
pdf Podcast


 


MathewsThe debate over troop withdrawal, the “surge,” and lack of political progress

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photos Quicktime
pdf Podcast

 

 


MathewsGuiding principles for U.S. foreign policy in the future

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photos Quicktime
pdf Podcast

 

 


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The Effectiveness of the “Surge”
Mathews appeared on BBC Radio 4’s The World Tonight to discuss the effectiveness of the “surge” in meeting its objectives in Iraq. Mathews argues that while a departure of U.S. troops from Iraq would likely increase violence in the short-term, it remains unclear whether the consequences of staying are better for the U.S. and Iraq in the medium- and long-term. “At the cost of a lot of lives and an enormous amount of money—$12 billion a month—we are basically paying both sides to turn to each other and not to kill us. We are paying Sunni militia, we’re paying Shi’a militia, and that is obviously not a long-term formula for progress.”


bullet Resources

Jessica T. Mathews was appointed president of the Carnegie Endowment in 1997. Her career includes senior positions in the White House, the State Department, Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations, the World Resources Institute, and the Washington Post.

The War in Iraq Carnegie Resource Page offers a large body of up-to-date work on this critical issue.

The Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to examine economic, socio-political, and strategic interests in the Arab world. Through detailed country studies and the exploration of key cross-cutting themes, the Carnegie Middle East Program, in coordination with the Carnegie Middle East Center, provides analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region.

The Carnegie Middle East Center is a public policy think tank and research center based in Beirut, Lebanon. Bringing together senior researchers from the region, the Carnegie Middle East Center aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East and deepen understanding of the issues the region and its people face.

The Arab Reform Bulletin addresses political reform in the Middle East. Sent monthly, it offers analysis from U.S.-based and Middle Eastern political experts in English and Arabic, as well as news synopses and annotated resource guides.

 


Guiding Principles

Five years into the conflict, Mathews recommends five guiding principles for future U.S. foreign policy:

1. The United States has very limited power to determine the course of political change in foreign countries. Policies built on affecting political outcomes are almost certain to fail.

2. Both timing and a country's readiness for democracy are critical to successful reform. The United States must be realistic about when timing is right for democratic reform and how long it takes for fundamental political change to happen.

3. Military power does not translate directly into political power and influence.

4. Legitimacy matters. The way the world judges U.S. actions directly determines the ability of the United States to lead.

5. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict remains central in the political mind of the region. There will be no stable road to peace in the region so long as the conflict continues to fester, yet the conditions required to achieve a two-state solution are rapidly evaporating.


The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910, its work is nonpartisan and dedicated to achieving practical results.

The Endowment—currently pioneering the first global think tank—has operations in China, the Middle East, Russia, Europe, and the United States. These five locations include the two centers of world governance and the three places whose political evolution and international policies will most determine the near-term possibilities for international peace and economic advance.


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