Carnegie E-news  
April 03, 2008 



Is NATO up to the Afghan Challenge?NATO Troops Under Fire
NATO and its partners have undertaken "separate and fragmented actions" to contend with the faltering security situation in Afghanistan, said former Afghan Interior Minister Ali A. Jalali at a recent Carnegie event in Washington. If NATO is to be successful in Afghanistan, it must adopt a long-term, nationally coordinated, and holistic strategy.  For more background analysis on this week’s NATO summit in Bucharest:

Trenin: NATO and Russia
• Gottemoeller: Sergei Ivanov’s Strategic Breakthrough 
Abdullah: Afghanistan's Current Challenges
Additional Resources: NATO Expansion


Climate ChangeBreaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate Change
For the first time, China is considering an emissions target while half of U.S. states have set their own targets. The time for a deal is now if the United States and China are to break their "suicide pact" of self-destructive, energy-using behavior. Though China and the United States together produce 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, both countries demand that the other take responsibility for climate change. In this report, William Chandler identifies practical, non-treaty-based approaches both countries can take to cut their carbon dioxide emissions and cooperate on shared climate change prevention initiatives.
Reading Khamenei CoverReading Khamenei
In a unique and timely new report, Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour presents an in-depth political profile of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei based on a careful reading of three decades of his writings and speeches. Sadjadpour argues that "Iran's Islamic government is more powerful than it has been ever been vis-à-vis the United States, Khamenei is more powerful than he's ever been within Iran, and in order to devise a more effective U.S. policy toward Iran a better understanding of Khamenei is essential." Though Khamenei is sometimes dismissed as weak and indecisive, Sadjadpour writes, "his rhetoric depicts a resolute leader with a remarkably consistent and coherent—though highly cynical and conspiratorial—world view."

Related:
Event: Experts Discuss Reading Khamenei
 

bullet Iraq and Beyond
Jessica MathewsThe Fifth Anniversary of the Iraq War
Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews shares her thoughts on lessons learned in the five years since the invasion, the debate over withdrawal, the “surge” and lack of political progress, and guiding principles for U.S. foreign policy in the future. Mathews argues that much of what has happened in Iraq proved to be utterly predictable and — at the cost of many lives and billions of dollars — destabilized the region and created an incredibly divisive political debate over the withdrawal of troops.

Related:
• Commentary: Effectiveness of the “Surge” (BBC Radio 4)
Commentary: Achieving stability in a political vacuum (China Radio International)


Tom Carothers"What Should the World Expect from America After Bush?"
Iraq remains the definitive foreign policy difference between the U.S. presidential contenders, while U.S. policy towards China and Russia is unlikely to change dramatically in the next U.S. administration. Robert Kagan and Tom Carothers debate where the presidential candidates differ with regard to their policies on the Middle East, climate change, trade, the war on terror, and the U.S. role in the world.


bullet Pakistani Politics
Frederic GrareRestoring the Pakistani Judiciary
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to imprison Supreme Court judges last year was the beginning of the end of Musharraf’s unchallenged rule, said Frederic Grare in an interview on BBC World. Although Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani has freed the judges, Grare said, different factions of the ruling coalition have yet to decide whether or not the judges will be restored to office.


bullet Russian Politics
MedvedevMedvedev and the Prospects for Reforming Russian Politics
As the next Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev inherits the duel legacy of a strong top executive and limits on civic freedoms left by his predecessor Vladimir Putin. Some of Medvedev's campaign rhetoric and his non-KGB past have generated optimism that he could work toward liberalizing Russian political discourse. But as Masha Lipman writes in The Washington Post, domestic economic concerns, political infighting, and the continued presence of Putin as prime minister cast such optimism as "wishful thinking."

bullet Arab Political ReformBeyond the Facade Cover
Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World

In the book Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World, editors Marina Ottaway and Julia Choucair-Vizoso evaluate the changes taking place in the region and argue that the vast array of reforms implemented by Arab governments over the last two decades have presented a façade of reform while maintaining the concentration of power among authoritarian rulers. Beyond the Façade forces us to recognize the reality of conflicting interests and the limitations of external actors to bring about political reform, while drawing lessons on how to make international democracy promotion more effective.


Arab Reform BulletinArab Reform Bulletin
The April issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin features:

• An interview with three activists about women's rights in Gulf states.
• Controversies surrounding Egypt's municipal elections.
• The Bush administration's budget request for the freedom agenda.
• Prospects for Sarkozy's "Mediterranean Union" proposal.
• A reexamination of Morocco's electoral system.

Plus news developments from across the Middle East, debates in the media, new publications, and much more.


bullet Chinese Governance
Tiananmen SquareChina's Regional Governance in the 21st Century
Recent unrest in Tibet and an upcoming presidential election in Taiwan have refocused attention on China's controversial governance policies. Robert Kagan describes in The Washington Post China's difficulty entering a democratic 21st-century global politics with "a 19th-century soul" preoccupied with "nationalist pride, ambitions and resentments." Josh Kurlantzick details in the Los Angles Times the long-simmering circumstances in Tibet and why recent violence shouldn't come as a surprise.

Related:
• Kagan: Behind the 'Modern' China

Kurlantzick: Volcano in the Himalayas
Pei: Taiwan poll offers hope for peace
• Event: Assessing U.S. Taiwan Policy
• Event: 
Report on the Hu-Wen Government


bullet Fusion Economy
Josh KurlantzickThe Rise of Authoritarian Capitalism
In the past five years, governments around the world have been transforming themselves into deal makers and business players on a scale never seen in the modern era. The rise of states as global economic players marks a sharp reversal from decades in which private enterprise seemed an unstoppable force in global finance, commerce, and culture. Josh Kurlantzick comments for the Boston Globe on the significant shift in global power this "fusion of state control with business principles" is causing.

bullet Middle East in Crisis
Rice and AbbasSecretary Rice Pushes for Talks
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returned to the Middle East to continue the diplomatic push for renewed peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and discuss the political situations in Lebanon and Iraq with regional leaders. Carnegie experts in the Middle East and Washington offer commentary and online resources—in English and Arabic—to provide context on the current issues facing the region.

Related:
• Brown: The Road Out of Gaza
• Salem: The Way to Exit from Lebanon's Morass
• Multimedia: Experts discuss "The New Middle East"
• Resource: Crisis in the Middle East


Lebanon ProtestInterpreting Lebanon's Uncertain Politics
The uncertain political environment in Lebanon is often cast as a proxy conflict between U.S. and Iranian interests. But as Amr Hamzawy writes in Al-Ahram Weekly, “What we have in the Middle East is not a struggle between two invincible powers. It is rather a scene in which a troubled superpower and a hobbled regional power try to find their bearings in passageways cluttered with various Arab and non-Arab agendas.”

Related:
Salem: Stalemate Threatens Stability
Salem: The Way to Exit Lebanon's Morass

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