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September 18, 2008 |
Iran Says “No” – Now What?
The IAEA reported its serious concern this week that Iran continues to defy Security Council resolutions on uranium enrichment, refuses to answer questions regarding possible weaponization activities. To break the impasse George Perkovich recommends the United States give Iran one last, time-limited chance to negotiate the suspension of its fuel-cycle-related activities and show Iran’s leaders that the more they advance enrichment capabilities, the less valuable cessation of those activities becomes for negotiating incentives. If Iran refuses, he recommends withdrawing the offer from the table and a move to tighter sanctions. | MORE > |
Nuclear Resources
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Also in this issue...
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Engaging Pakistan
Pakistan’s newly elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, faces daunting challenges governing Pakistan that will impact the United States’ efforts to neutralize the growing Taliban threat along its border with Afghanistan. Ashley J. Tellis stresses the necessity for U.S. policy to support rebalanced civil-military relations in Pakistan without alienating military leaders. | MORE >
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 Building on a five-year track record as the most reliable and innovative publication focusing on reform issues in the Arab world, the Arab Reform Bulletin has been transformed into a full featured website that offers greatly enhanced search functionality, the option for readers to comment on articles, and frequent news updates.
The September issue features analysis of critical Iraqi political issues, the changing face of Islamism in Egypt, new security courts and counter terrorism in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait as an atypical rentier state, and Algeria's upcoming presidential election—plus news developments, commentary from the Arab media, new publications on the Arab region, and much more.
 President Bush’s September 9th announcement that 8,000 troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by February 2009 was less than many observers expected. Jessica Mathews explains that the smaller draw-down reflects the extreme fragility of the current situation in Iraq, and a recognition that the security gains made to date could quickly unravel.
 Lebanon’s Conference on National Dialogue, a gathering of the country’s many political factions aimed at resolving internal disputes, resumed this week. Paul Salem explains that the dialogue should not focus solely on the divisive issue of a national defense strategy and Hizbullah's weapons, but begin with less controversial topics like reinforcing the judiciary and strengthening social safety nets as a way to build momentum for success.
 Secretary Rice’s recent trip to Libya may open a new era in U.S.-Libyan relations. Michele Dunne urges the United States to use its limited but growing influence in Libya to support growth in non-governmental sectors rather than implicitly endorsing the regime’s status quo. The United States should set clear objectives aimed at helping the Libyan people and avoid merely putting more resources into the hands of regime insiders and crony capitalists.
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Carnegie’s resource page: Russia–Georgia Conflict offers analyses on Russia’s agenda in the Caucuses, Georgia’s strategic calculations, how Western/American values may have played a role in escalating recent tensions, and how to improve U.S.–Russia relations.
 Taiwanese people watched Russia’s occupation of Georgia with deep concern about their own future and what this episode says about the reliability of U.S. defense assurances. Douglas H. Paal and Jeffrey Bader highlight key lessons both the United States and Taiwan should take away from the crisis as they manage China’s persistent claims to sovereignty across the Taiwan Strait.
 Turkey narrowly avoided an unprecedented constitutional crisis in July when its Constitutional Court refrained from banning the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Henri Barkey explained at a recent Carnegie event that far from being over, the power struggle between secularist and Islamist factions in Turkey will shift to contentious issues surrounding EU reforms and U.S. policies in the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq.
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 China is shifting its economic focus from growth at all costs to a broader concept of development that includes both social and economic policy objectives.
KC Kwok, chief government economist of China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, explained at a recent Carnegie event that these new goals include fiscal reform, financial market reform, the growth of the private sector, and the development of a social security apparatus.
 The Beijing Olympics were a resounding success for the Communist Party, boosting its popularity among the Chinese people. But Minxin Pei explains in the Washington Post that the Games won’t dramatically change China's political future.
 The U.S.-India draft nuclear cooperation agreement passed another key hurdle on September 6 when the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) decided to resume nuclear trade with India after a 15-year hiatus. Before trade with the United States can resume, however, the U.S. Congress must approve the draft agreement. Sharon Squassoni explains the implications of the recent NSG decision on the nonproliferation regime and highlights the potential hurdles for rapid Congressional approval.
 The bloodless military coup that overthrew Mauritania’s democratic government complicates U.S. efforts to improve security in North Africa. Christopher Boucek explains that Washington can encourage coup leaders to move toward elections by leveraging its military assistance and humanitarian and institutional capacity-building programs in the country.
 New democracies around the world are increasingly attempting to use institutional incentives and constraints to stimulate the development of cohesive and inclusive parties.
To better understand this trend Carnegie recently hosted a panel of experts to
discuss whether or not political engineering works.
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