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January 30, 2009 |
Clearing a Path for Guantánamo Returnees
 The news that two Saudi nationals held at the U.S. military detention center in Guantánamo Bay returned to al-Qaeda in Yemen raises questions over whether terror detainees can be safely released. Christopher Boucek explains the challenges facing President Obama’s plan to close the center and the need for effective rehabilitation programs. | MORE>
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More on Detainees
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Also in this issue...
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Gaza’s Aftermath
Amid simmering tension in Gaza, George Mitchell, the U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace, is in the region this week to meet with Arab and Israeli leaders. Nathan Brown explains that the new administration should use diplomacy to restore a livable situation for the present, and at a later date move back toward longer-term diplomacy. | MORE>
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 Only 10 percent of the 2008 U.S. nuclear security budget went toward preventing a nuclear attack and reversing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology. Stephen I. Schwartz and Deepti Choubey explain that the lack of comprehensive accounting impairs balancing priorities and fosters the impression that the U.S. is more interested in preserving and upgrading its nuclear arsenal than in reducing and eliminating the growing threats of nuclear proliferation and radiological attack.
 China released data last week showing that GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008—down from 9.0 percent in the previous quarter and 13 percent for all of 2007. Albert Keidel explains that the data reveal a mixed economic picture: weakened trade and declining rural incomes are cause for concern, but strong growth in agriculture, investment, and urban household incomes bodes well for a recovery in 2009.
 The terrorist group implicated in the Mumbai attacks, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), poses a direct threat to U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan and is second only to al–Qaeda in potential threats to the U.S. homeland. In testimony before the U.S. Senate, Ashley J. Tellis explained how the United States can work to eliminate this threat by pressuring Pakistan and assisting India's counterterrorism efforts.
Addressing the LeT Threat:
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Fifteen million Iraqis are expected to vote in January 31st provincial elections. Marina Ottaway explains on PRI’s The Takeaway that the elections are unlikely to upset the status quo between Shiite and Sunni representation, but may redistribute power within those blocs.
 President Obama’s interview with Al-Arabiya this week was a clear signal that his administration plans to speak directly to the Arab world. Carnegie, in conjunction with the Project on Middle East Democracy, hosted an event with regional experts who advised the new administration to strike an honest tone and modest approach focused on building relationships based on cultural understanding and respect with the citizens of region as well as their governments.
Obama's Middle East Policy:
 Jessica T. Mathews outlines the priorities of the post-Bush era ranging from stemming the violence in Afghanistan and Iraq to reversing policies that reject diplomacy as a means to resolve disputes and embrace unilateralism. Carnegie experts provide practical advice for President Obama's foreign policy agenda and which issues he should address first.
 Russia signaled this week that it is halting plans to deploy short-range missiles in Kaliningrad in response to the new U.S. administration’s less aggressive approach to missile defense. Dmitri Trenin advises President Obama to begin rebuilding the U.S.-Russia relationship by renewing the 1991 START treaty and creating a meaningful Euro-Atlantic security alliance that includes Russia. |
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Nuclear Priorities