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April 30, 2009 |
New Global Economic Analysis
 The new International Economic Bulletin draws on the expertise of Carnegie's global centers to provide a candid view of the economic crisis and its political implications. Addressing the momentous challenges of the economic downturn will require objectivity, and the ability to analyze the political dimensions of reforms around the world. Experts on Russia, China, the Middle East, and Africa weigh in on how policymakers in each region can do more to counteract the crisis. | MORE> |
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 The global economy may begin recovering later in 2009 or in early 2010, but the latest data from the industrialized economies paints a murkier picture. In these highly uncertain times, even the most optimistic policy makers must recognize the consequences of an unabated downturn, and do more to counteract the crisis.
 China's financial system is healthy, its government finances are in good shape, and its leaders are providing a swift and strong economic stimulus. But no one knows how far global trade will fall, and China's spending is largely supporting exporters.
 The Middle East has largely been hampered in its response to the global economic crisis by limited financial resources, weak financial institutions, and rising budget deficits. Middle Eastern countries should pursue greater collective action at both the private sector and governmental levels. |
The global economic crisis and the resulting domestic political pressures may force policy makers across the world to reconsider their support for free trade. Leaders of the largest economies must take bold steps to forestall the resurgence of protectionism.
Russia's response to the global economic crisis has so far focused on supporting corporations and the financial sector, with limited support for households. The deepening social impact of the downturn suggests that leaders should concentrate on cushioning the blow to the poor and the vulnerable.
The drop in Africa's economic growth will do the most harm to the continent's poor, who are particularly vulnerable to economic volatility and temporary slowdowns. The G20 commitments, vague as they are, make it more likely that social protection measures will be enacted and new investments will be targeted to encourage African trade. |
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Also in this issue...
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Promoting the Rule of Law
During his recent speech at the Summit of the Americas, President Obama affirmed a commitment by the United States to promote rule-of-law reforms around the world. Thomas Carothers warns that leaders should not underestimate the difficulty of the task by overestimating the degree of consensus needed for building the rule of law in practice. They must not reduce the concept down to a procedural minimum, nor embrace the idea that the rule of law should precede democracy. | MORE>
Also New on Democracy
Democracy and the International Economic Crisis [commentary]
Democracy Assistance Without a Plan [Q&A
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 David Rothkopf warns that despite appointing high-profile advisers tasked with transforming U.S. foreign policy, the Obama administration has yet to engage the most pressing challenge: overhauling the entire national-security apparatus to reflect U.S. priorities and budget realities.
 The United States faces a long list of foreign policy challenges that it cannot solve alone. The 4th annual Carnegie Junior Fellows Conference examined the role of emerging powers in climate change, nonproliferation, and the global economic system.
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Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, recently called for an alternative to the U.S. dollar as the world's currency of choice. To discuss the health of China's financial sector and whether the pace of reforms should increase, Carnegie convened the 9th debate on Captiol Hill in the ongoing "Reframing China Policy" series.
Russia is among the countries hardest hit by the global economic crisis. Zeljko Bogetic, lead economist for Russia at the World Bank, warned that unless the country’s leadership takes quick and targeted action to mitigate the impact on households, the negative economic and social ramifications of today’s crisis will likely be longer and deeper than those experienced in recent Russian history.
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