Intelligence on Iraq
 
 

WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications

This January 2004 Carnegie report studies what the intelligence community understood about Iraq's nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs before the war and outlines policy reforms designed to improve threat assessments, deter transfer of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons to terrorists, and avoid politicization of the intelligence process. The summary tables on Iraq's nuclear, biological, chemical and missile programs have been updated in 2004.

"To date, some of the best work on the use of prewar intelligence has been done by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonpartisan think tank. Its painstaking study, from January 2004, compared what the various intelligence agencies were estimating about Iraq in the runup to the war to what administration officials were saying." (The Boston Globe, 25 November 2005)

Reports on Iraq

National Strategy for Victory in Iraq, National Security Council, 30 November 2005

Silberman-Robb Report to the President, Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, 31 March 2005

Comprehensive Report of Charles Duelfer on Iraq’s WMD, 30 September 2004

9-11 Commission Report (pdf)

9-11 Commission Report Executive Summary (pdf)

Senate Intelligence Committee Report, 9 July 2004

Full 500+ page report
Conclusions

Transcript of the Committee's press briefing

Butler Report on British Intelligence Leading Up to the Iraq War, UK House of Commons

 

WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications

Guide to Key Findings

Transcript of author's presentation of report, 8 January 2003

UPDATE: Review four summary tables on assessments of Iraq's WMD capabilities from the Carnegie report updated to include a concise version of inaccuracies documented by the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Nuclear | Chemical | Biological | Missile |

Related Carnegie Analysis on Intelligence on Iraq

Gold Medal Inspector, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 7 October 2005

The Media and the Downing Street Memos, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 21 June 2005

You Can't Handle the Truth, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 1 April 2005

An Unnecessary War, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 13 January 2005

Commission Pulls Its Punches But Delivers Useful Proliferation Recommendations, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione and Alexis Orton, 22 July 2004

Intelligence Patterns and Problems, Carnegie Analysis by Alexis Orton, 19 July 2004

The President's Proliferation Pitch, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione and Jon Wolfsthal, 13 July 2004

Intelligence Failures, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, George Perkovich, and Jessica T. Mathews, 7 July 2004

Two Terrifying Reports: The US Senate and the 9/11 Commission on Intelligence Failures Before September 11 and the Iraq War, Article by Joseph Cirincione in Disarmament Diplomacy, July/August 2004

A Tale of Two Intelligence Estimates, Carnegie Analysis by Jessica T. Mathews and Jeff Miller, 31 March 2004

One Year Later: It Wasn't Us, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione and Alexis Orton, 18 March 2004

Tenet: On the Record, Carnegie Analysis by Alexis Orton, 10 March 2004

The French Were Right, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 24 February 2004

Powell Proved Deception, But Not Imminent Threat, Carnegie Analysis by Joseph Cirincione, 3 February 2004

Intelligence on Iraq Part II: Rising Alarm, Carnegie Analysis by Jessica Mathews, George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, and Alexis Orton, 31 January 2004

Intelligence on Iraq Part I: Foundations of the Assessments, by Jessica Mathews, George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, 30 January 2004

Evidence: Pro and Con

"Iraq on the Record: The Bush Administration's Public Statements on Iraq, " Prepared by Rep. Henry R. Waxman, 16 March 2004

"THEN & NOW: Heeding & Ignoring Intel Warnings On Weak WMD Evidence," Center for American Progress, 3 February 2004

"Neglecting Intelligence, Ignoring Warnings," Center for American Progress, 28 January 2004

"Saddam's al Qaeda Connection," Stephen F. Hayes, Weekly Standard, 1 September 2003

"Case Closed: The U.S. Government's Secret Memo Detailing Cooperation Between Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden," Stephen F. Hayes, Weekly Standard, 24 November 2003

"Yes, There Is a Connection: The 9/11 Commission confirms Iraq-al Qaeda ties," Daniel McKivergan, Weekly Standard, 22 July 2004


Related Articles

On Carnegie's WMD in Iraq


WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications - Listen to Carnegie authors release the findings and recommendations of this report by clicking here. About the Authors: Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews, George Perkovich

Previous Carnegie Reports
: Iraq: A New Approach (Aug. 2002) and Iraq: What Next? (Jan. 2003)
 

Press Coverage on the Report (News Archive)

National Coverage
International Coverage

Editorials

 Carnegie Analysis  |  Administration Statements  |   Intelligence Reports   |   Congress  |   UN Inspections 

 

Administration Speeches & Presentations

The Bush Administration's Case For War
Click here for a Carnegie chronological collection of quotations from top Administration officials on Iraq's WMD capabilities (August 2002 through November 2003).

"Selective Intelligence,"
PBS Frontline Special Report from 'Truth, War and Consequences,' October 9, 2003

Intelligence Reports

"Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Estimates on Iraq," Senate Intelligence Committee, 7 July 2004 (pdf)

"Fact Sheet: Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction," White House, 6 February 2004

US Intelligence Reports
British Intelligence Reports
National Intelligence Estimate
British Government
"Declassified and Released Excerpts of the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq,"
25 July 2003 (pdf)
 

"Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction,"
Assessment of the British Government, 24 September 2002 (pdf)

CIA British Parliament

"Iraqi Mobile Biological Warfare Agent Production Plants"
Report by the Central Intelligence Agency, 28 May 2003

"Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs"
Central Intelligence Agency, October 2002

Status of Iraq's acquisition of WMD, from CIA's biannual "Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions" reports to Congress


"Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction," House of Commons Report, 14 July 2004 (pdf)

"The Decision to go to War in Iraq," House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee Report, 8 July 2003 (pdf)

Non-Governmental Reports
Additional Resources

"After the Butler Report: Time to Take on the Group Think in Washington and London,"
BASIC Paper, July 2004

"Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes: Separating Fact from Fiction,"
ISIS Study by David Albright, 8 December 2003 (pdf)

"Claims and Evaluations of Iraq's Proscribed Weapons"
Prepared by Glen Rangwala

"Iraq: 16 Distortions, Not 16 Words,"
Council for a Livable World, August 8, 2003

"Fact Sheet: Iraq-Niger Uranium Chronology"
Arms Control Association, August 2003

DIA Carnegie

"Defense Agency Issues Excerpt on Iraqi Chemical Warfare Program"
Department of State, 7 June 2003

"Iraqi Defectors' Weapons Claims Were 'False'" The Guardian, 30 September 2003

"Iraq: What Next?"
Carnegie Endowment Report detailing details concerns over Iraq’s weapons capabilities and assessing the status of inspections, 27 January 2003 (pdf)

"Iraq: A New Approach"
Carnegie Endowment Report released in September that helped define the new inspection regime. (pdf)

State Department IISS

"Illustrative Examples of Omissions From the Iraqi Declaration to the United Nations Security Council"

Department of State Fact Sheet, 19 December 2002

"Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes: Separating Fact from Fiction," ISIS Study by David Albright, 8 December 2003 (pdf)
Iraq Survey Group PBS Frontline

Charles Dulfer, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committe, "Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Programs," 30 March 2004

David Kay, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on "WMD in Iraq," 28 January 2004

David Kay, testimony before Congress on the "Interim Progress Report on the Activites of the Iraq Survey Group," 2 October 2003.

"Chasing Saddam's Weapons," Frontline Special, 22 January 2004

"Truth, War and Consequences." Frontline Special, 9 October 2003

"Blair's War," Frontline Special, 3 April 2003

"The Long Road to War," Frontline Special, 17 March 2003

"The War Behind Closed Doors," Frontline Special, 20 February 2003

UNMOVIC BASIC

Dr. Hans Blix's Statement to the Security Council, 7 March 2003

Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei's Statement to the Security Council, 7 March 2003

"Unresolved Disarmament Issues: Iraq's Proscibed Weapons Programs," UNMOVIC Working Document, 6 March 2003 (pdf)

Other Security Council Briefings:
(Blix
| ElBaradei)

"Unravelling the Known Unknowns: Why no Weapons of Mass Destruction Have Been Found in Iraq," BASIC Special Report by David Isenberg and Ian Davis, January 2004

Congress

UNMOVIC/IAEA/UNSCOM

Click here for Carnegie Resources on Iraq

Click Here fore Carnegie resources on post war Iraq.

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