China’s Missing Civil Society

China’s capitalist revolution presents two divergent political paths for the country: autocracy or democracy. While the current strength of the CCP might suggest China is traveling down the first path, there are signs that citizen resistance on issues like growing economic disparities and environmental degradation may be on the rise and become more potent in the future.

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U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s decision to attend the ASEAN Forum in Singapore this week is a welcomed acknowledgment of Asia’s status as a new global center of gravity. Doug Paal writes in the Wall Street Journal that for years U.S. diplomacy has shortchanged much of Asia, and that an effective U.S. engagement strategy should include building a regional organization that can address the full scope of issues facing the continent.

On October 5, 2006, the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace launched a series of debates on the most critical—and controversial—issues involving China’s economic, political-social, and military evolution and their policy implications.  The main purpose of the debates is to provide fresh thinking based on systematic, well informed deliberation of the main issues.

• Debate 1: The Sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party
• Debate 2: China's Economy
• Debate 3: China's Military Modernization
• Debate 4: Human Rights in China
• Debate 5: China's Role in Asia
• Debate 6: China's Trade Policy
• Debate 7: China as a Responsible Stakeholder
• Debate 8: U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan, Time for Change?

Douglas H. Paal, former U.S. representative to Taiwan, and national security official in the George H. W. Bush and Reagan White Houses, has joined Carnegie as Director of its China Program in Washington and Beijing.

Zhou Dadi, former director general of the Energy and Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China, has joined Carnegie to run the Beijing arm of the Energy and Climate Program.

China’s economy will surpass the U.S. by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury. Albert Keidel argues in his new report, China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, that China’s rapid growth today is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. China’s ascendency as the preeminent world commercial influence requires U.S. leaders to reassess a broad array of economic and military policies.

Related event: China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, July 09, 2008

More on U.S.-China Economic Relations / China's Economy

With the Olympics now less than a month away, the Chinese government is putting a quick end to mass protests like the one late last month in Guizhou province involving more than ten thousand citizens. Minxin Pei writes in the International Herald Tribune that while corruption and social injustice are often cited as the causes for these demonstrations, incompetence of local officials and the power of rumors unchecked by a credible free press play a more immediate role.

More on Social Development in China

Despite President Bush’s 2001 commitment to supply Taiwan with F-16's for its self defense, the administration froze the final part of the arms deal last week. Ashley Tellis argues in the Wall Street Journal that Washington’s concern over offending Beijing is misplaced: the deal should move forward, not only to support a democratic ally whose leader is committed to improving cross-straits relations, but also as a pragmatic step toward balancing China’s military build-up. 

More on Security and Foreign Policy

For the first time, China is considering an emissions target while half of U.S. states have set their own targets. The time for a deal is now if the United States and China are to break their "suicide pact" of self-destructive, energy-using behavior. Though China and the United States together produce 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, both countries demand that the other take responsibility for climate change. William Chandler identifies practical, non treaty-based approaches both countries can take to cut their carbon dioxide emissions and cooperate on shared climate change prevention initiatives.

Related:
Financing Energy Efficiency in China

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