Program Publications
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China and the United States—A Difficult Year Ahead
While there has been an increase in heated rhetoric over sensitive issues between Beijing and Washington, both governments are trying to prevent emotions from getting out of control, aware that the United States and China must work together to resolve a multitude of transnational challenges.
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Could There be a Trade War Between China and the West?
As the U.S trade deficit becomes increasingly politicized in the face of high unemployment and a global contraction in demand, there is an increasing likelihood of trade tensions with net surplus countries, especially China.
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The Real Lessons from the Google-China Spat
Google’s defiance of the Chinese government will likely remain a crucial moment in China’s relations with the West in general, and should be viewed as a lesson on China’s political calculations behind its policy toward Western companies.
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Never Short a Country with $2Trillion in Reserves?
The idea that massive levels of foreign currency reserves are a guarantor of economic stability is based on a profound misunderstanding both of history and of the nature of reserves, which are almost totally useless in protecting large economies from domestic bubbles.
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Why Trade War is Very Likely to Break Out This Year
The contraction in global demand set off by the financial crisis has led to escalating trade tensions between China and the United States. Unless a long-term solution is jointly worked out immediately, trade conflict will only worsen.
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China's Financial Evolution Will Take the Slow Road
There is intense speculation that China's economic rise will radically transform the world’s capital markets and financial system, but such predictions are unlikely to come true in the foreseeable future.
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China: Ahead of the Pack
China's economic recovery is solidifying. Though risks—particularly in the real estate sector—are multiplying, they remain manageable, and an exit strategy is emerging.
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China-U.S.: Google Is Just the Beginning
Google’s public dispute with China is likely just the beginning of a challenging year for U.S.-China relations, as ongoing tensions over Taiwan arms sales, trade disputes, and UN sanctions will continue to hamper bilateral cooperation.
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China, US Likely to Drift Apart This Year
Although Obama has improved America’s image internationally, he has made little tangible progress on long-term foreign policy problems and faces declining domestic support and a weak economy.
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China's Not a Superpower
Before China can move from being a great power to a superpower, it will have to overcome a number of economic, political, environmental, and regional challenges, from low per capita income and an aging and primarily rural population to the threat of ethnic secessionism.
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Chinese Dissident's Prison Sentence Draws Criticism
A Chinese court has sentenced prominent political dissident Liu Xiaobo to 11 years in prison, highlighting the contradictions between China’s rising status and its continual fear of internal threats.
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Doll(ar)-Drums?
While China's role in global trade is continuing to grow, the dollar, not the yuan or the euro, will remain the world’s leading reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
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Memo to Copenhagen: Commentary is Misinformed—China’s Commitment is Significant
Criticism of China’s pledge to reduce its carbon intensity by 45 percent by 2020 is ill-founded; it only serves to provide cover for U.S. opponents to climate change action, and risks blocking effective progress.
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North Korea: Bosworth Finally Arrives
With external pressure and internal problems causing increasing strain in Pyongyang, the Obama administration’s Special Envoy to North Korea can afford to be patient and wait out Kim Jong Il’s maneuvers over nuclear talks.
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Why China Won't Rule the World
While the global recession has benefited China’s international standing, the rise of China should not be overestimated, as the country continues to face the challenges of economic rebalancing, nonperforming loans, and domestic instability.
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Competitive Devaluations Threaten a Trade War
As Asian countries seek to maintain trade advantage by manipulating their currencies, the United States and Europe, who have little room to devalue, may respond with protectionist measures that will hurt global trade.
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Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings
Without greater global investment or a rise in Chinese domestic consumption, the increasing U.S. savings rate will have serious repercussions for both the Chinese and American economies and create aftershocks in dozens of other countries.
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China's North Korea Dilemma
Since China’s core interests regarding North Korea have not changed, its highly risk-averse approach, which focuses on mediation and limited pressure, will probably continue.
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Why Countries Resort to Trade Protectionism
The overvalued U.S. dollar has been unable to adjust sufficiently against Asian currencies, creating a risk that the United States will revert to trade protectionism in its attempt to achieve a better trade balance.
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China’s War on Low U.S. Interest Rates—When Imbalances Get Out of Hand
Despite recent Chinese criticism of low U.S. interest rates, changing these rates in either direction would have adverse effects on China’s economy, underscoring the deep imbalances in the global financial system.
