Democracy Promotion: Finding a Way Forward

The Obama administration faces pressure to pull back U.S. democracy promotion efforts in the wake of the Bush administration’s legacy. Thomas Carothers explains in two new Carnegie publications that by building a new approach to democracy promotion based on Obama’s values of cooperation and empowerment, the United States can regain its place as a respected, trusted, and influential ally of democracy around the world.

Democracy Promotion Resources:
Stepping Back From Democratic Pessimism
Democracy Promotion Under Obama: Finding a Way Forward
 

Palestine and Israel: Time for Plan B

Negotiations over a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict have reached a dead end. Nathan Brown explains that while an immediate and comprehensive solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is unattainable for now, international efforts should focus on a short-term cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that can pave the way for a sustainable armistice.
 

Middle East Expectations for Obama

Pressuring Israel to halt settlement activity and acting as an honest broker in peace negotiations is the only way to rebuild U.S.–Arab relations and rehabilitate the United States’ image in the Middle East, according to a series of commentaries by leading Arab analysts commissioned by the Carnegie Middle East Center.
 

Thinking Strategically About Russia

Successive U.S. administrations have forfeited the chance to integrate Russia into the West first afforded by the collapse of Communism and again by 9/11. Instead, the United States has either neglected Russia or openly disregarded its overtures and warnings on a range of regional concerns. Dmitri Trenin explains that President Obama needs a comprehensive approach to Russia based on a shared vision of European security.

Engaging Russia:
Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia
U.S.-Russian Relations: The Longer View

Syrian–Israeli Peace

An Israeli–Syrian peace deal is a real possibility and would have a positive effect on the Middle East and U.S. interests there. But the two sides will not reach an agreement without U.S. leadership. Paul Salem explains that the incoming administration should use a balance of pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make the agreement a reality.

Syrian-Israeli Relationship:
Experts Discuss Syrian-Israeli Peace
Syrian-Israeli Peace Talks and Political Deal in Lebanon

Engaging Pakistan

Pakistan will elect a new president on September 6 and will face daunting challenges relating to civil-military relations, counterterrorism operations, and relations with its neighbors—with major implications for United States. Ashley J. Tellis warns that the next U.S. president must pursue a balanced strategy toward Pakistan that simultaneously strengthens the civilian government—the best hope for Pakistan’s long-term stability—without alienating the Pakistani army.

Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

The crisis in Georgia bluntly revealed the failure by the United States and Russia to create a closer working relationship after the Cold War. With both countries now in presidential transition, the potential for new misunderstandings and tensions grows even greater. Rose Gottemoeller explains how agreements like the START and Conventional Armed Forces in Europe treaties could help establish a new book of rules both countries can embrace.
 

U.S.-Russia Relations:
U.S.-Russian Relations: The Longer View
U.S. and Russia Ambassadors Event
One Way to Save the Relationship
 

Nuclear Renaissance: Is It Coming? Should It?

Despite talk of a renaissance, nuclear power will account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation without aggressive financial support and significant policy changes. Sharon Squassoni explains that before committing to a rapid expansion of nuclear energy, the next U.S. administration must address critical questions about the feasibility and safety of nuclear expansion, and act to minimize current proliferation risks.

Nuclear Energy Resources:
Missed Opportunity: Nuclear Suppliers Group
Nuclear Power in a Warming World: Solution or Illusion?
Rules for the Nuclear Renaissance

Stabilizing Afghanistan

Stability in Afghanistan and the future of its government depend on the United States and its Afghan and other allies providing security for the Afghan people. William Maley warns that calls for an Iraq-style “troop surge” ignore the immediate need for a comprehensive political strategy to fix Afghanistan’s fragile security structure, dysfunctional system of government, and unstable borders.

Challenges in Afghanistan:
NATO and Afghanistan: Saving the State-Building Enterprise
Afghanistan: UN Special Representative Addresses Priorities

Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States

Efforts to re-invigorate a movement to abolish nuclear weapons are rising on the international agenda. George Perkovich explains in a new report that the next U.S. president should emphasize the goal of a world without nuclear weapons and outlines four security areas where the long-term project of abolishing nuclear weapons would best serve U.S. interests: preventing proliferation, preventing nuclear terrorism, reducing toward zero the threat of nuclear annihilation, and fostering new optimism for U.S. global leadership.

Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?
Abolishing Nuclear Weapons Event
Iran Says “No”—Now What?
 

Iran Says “No”—Now What?

A new IAEA report says that Iran continues to defy UN Security Council resolutions and enrich uranium while refusing to answer IAEA questions regarding possible weaponization activities. If the United States is to induce Iran to halt enrichment activities, both the costs of defiance and the benefits of cooperation must be greater, warns George Perkovich in a new policy brief. Perkovich explains that the United States should pursue a revised strategy showing Iran’s leaders that the more they advance enrichment capabilities, the less valuable cessation of those activities becomes for negotiating incentives packages.

Pakistan and the War on Terror

In a new report, Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis points to growing dissatisfaction in the United States about the Musharraf regime's perceived lack of commitment to counterterrorism operations. He argues that the U.S. must shift its counterterrorism policy towards Pakistan away from a reciprocal approach towards one encouraging Pakistan to enact effective counterterrorism policies in order to strengthen institutionalized trust with the U.S. over time.

In advance of Pakistan's upcoming parliamentary election on February 18, Carnegie experts offer resources on issues facing the region:
• U.S.-Pakistan Relations
• Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal
• Pakistan's Domestic Politics
• Regional Relations

Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate Change

For the first time, China is considering an emissions target while half of U.S. states have set their own targets. The time for a deal is now if the United States and China are to break their "suicide pact" of self-destructive, energy-using behavior. Though China and the United States together produce 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, both countries demand that the other take responsibility for climate change. William Chandler identifies practical, non treaty-based approaches both countries can take to cut their carbon dioxide emissions and cooperate on shared climate change prevention initiatives.

On February 4, the Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion with Stephen J. Hadley, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. Hadley discussed the Bush administration's efforts to promote economic growth and disease prevention in Africa and commented on the president's upcoming travels to Africa and his Smart Development Policy. Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews moderated the event.
Click here for event video and transcript.

The Surge in Iraq Has Failed

Following Congressional testimony by General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews argues that “buying more time to continue the same strategy can achieve nothing…. What is happening in Iraq is not a war the United States can win or lose. It is the inevitable struggle for power that rushes to fill a political vacuum…” Read full Policy Outlook.

Other resources and analysis on critical issues in Iraq:

• the current situation in Iraq
• troop surge 
• possible ways forward 
• the sectarian divide in Iraq 
• the Iraqi constitution

Iraq Suicide Bombings and Political Stability
As political instability continues to plague the Iraqi government, and following the deadliest suicide attacks of the war, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews and other regional experts discuss the country's political and security struggles on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer on August 15. Addressing the ongoing political stalemate in Bagdad, Mathews said, “What we need is a more inclusive process that includes both groups outside the government inside Iraq and Syria and Iran.“
Click here for video, audio, and transcript.

Related Publications:

• Even if We Leave Now, We'll Be Back, The Washington Post, December 10, 2006
• Bush Must Call for Reinforcements in Iraq, The Financial Times, November 13, 2006
• Withdrawal Pains, The Washington Post, December 4, 2005
• No Alternative, The New Republic, September 13, 2005.

• On Iraq, Short Memories, The Washington Post, September 12, 2005

U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush

Despite sweeping rhetoric about the global spread of democracy, the Bush Administration has significantly damaged U.S. democracy promotion efforts and increased the number of close ties with “friendly tyrants,” concludes Carnegie Vice President for Studies Thomas Carothers in a new report.  He argues that the main U.S. presidential candidates have voiced support for democracy promotion, but not yet outlined plans to put it back on track. Carothers analyzes the Administration’s record on democracy promotion, its effect on democracy worldwide, and presents fresh ideas about the role democracy promotion can and should play in future U.S. policies.

Event: In a recent Carnegie seminar, Francis Fukuyama, Vin Weber, Jennifer Windsor, and Carothers discussed the present and future of democracy promotion.
Click here for video, audio, and transcript. 

Related: Repairing Democracy Promotion, Carothers, Washingtonpost.com, September 14, 2007

Fear Factor

The recently discovered terrorist plot in the UK has raised many questions. Immediately after the event, most of the questions sought to determine whether this event signaled another attack. The focus of the questions has since changed; many now ponder the reality of the so-called circumvented event -- was it an Al Qaeda plot or a political ploy? Carnegie Visiting Scholar John Judis addresses these questions in a New Republic Online article, as he seeks to determine whether officials were “crying wolf about the British airline terrorist plot.”

 More Leaks, Please: Questioning the Iraq Intelligence Report
Those who have been privy to the National Intelligence Estimate on the “Trends in Global Terrorism,” have been quick to conclude that the escalation of the terrorist threat level is a result of the Iraq war. Carnegie Senior Associate Robert Kagan disagrees with this interpretation and argues, in a recent Washington Post op-ed, that many other variables need to be analyzed to make this distinction. 

The U.S. government recently announced new economic sanctions and is drafting a UN Security Council resolution to strengthen international pressure on the Sudanese government to address the ongoing crisis in Darfur. In April, John Holmes, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, discussed his recent trip to Darfur, Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic in an event at the Carnegie Endowment. Holmes described the successes and challenges of the humanitarian effort, but stressed the importance of a political solution, “The peacekeeping operation itself, even when it’s there in full, is not the solution to the problem. What is needed above all is a political settlement there.”

Don't Panic About Space Weapons

When the U.S. launched a missile to destroy a dead satellite loaded with toxic hydrazine fuel and potentially threatening to populated areas, it resurrected fears about the so-called weaponization of space. Carnegie Associate Ashley J. Tellis comments in the Wall Street Journal on the ongoing "space weapon" debate and praises the Bush administration for rejecting a joint Russian-Chinese arms treaty aimed at banning such weapons.

Punching the U.S. Military’s “Soft Ribs”: China’s Antisatellite Weapon Test in Strategic Perspective
In a provocative new policy brief, Punching the U.S. Military’s “Soft Ribs”: China’s Antisatellite Weapon Test in Strategic Perspective, Ashley J. Tellis challenges the conventional wisdom that China’s antisatellite test (ASAT) was a protest against U.S. space policy, arguing instead that it was part of a loftier strategy to combat U.S. military superiority and one which China will not trade away in any arms-control regime. On June 22, an event was held to discuss its findings.