Russia's Presidential Transition

As Russia reasserts itself on the international stage, the relationship between its civilian and military spheres remains one of the determining factors in the organization of political power. Thomas Gomart’s Russian Civil-Military Relations: Putin’s Legacy looks beyond traditional dualism between the Kremlin and the military, introducing the role of the security services in Russian power distribution. With the support of the siloviki and justification through the fight against “international terrorism,” Putin worked throughout his administration to reestablish presidential control over the military. As Russia transitions to Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, it is important to review the Putin presidency, which has given many of the country’s institutions their shape, but also reach back further into postcommunist and Soviet history for an understanding of the realities of today.

Nikolai Petrov examines the power struggle between the Republic of Bashkortostan and Moscow and argues that Bashkortostan President Murtaza Rakhimov's dismissal of his chief of staff is a direct challenge to the Kremlin and a test of President Dmitry Medvedev's new authority.

More on Russian regions:

Local Elections Outside of the Kremlin Box
Regions Vying for Funding and Influence
Siloviki Offer Eyes and Ears
Returning Direct Elections

Underlying the G-8 summit in Hokkaido, Japan this week is the  tension between the economic and security interests of a resurgent Russia and the West. Sam Greene argues that the West can successfully engage Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, by helping Russia diversify its economy and tame inflation with integration into international institutions such as the World Trade Organization. He sounds a note of caution about this effort. "To make this effort work, Western leaders must include Russia as an equal partner," Greene writes. "They will have to be careful, however, about where exactly they put that equals sign; recognizing Russia's economic importance need not translate to an endorsement of its political system."

Russia's Over-Managed Democracy: Does Medvedev Make a Difference? A panel discussion, featuring Nikolai Petrov, Maria Lipman and Michael McFaul, on the current state of Russia's political and economic development and the likelihood of continuity or change in Dmitry Medvedev's first term as president of Russia.

An Assessment of President Putin's Tenure and the Outlook for His Successor. Aleksei Arbatov on the legacy President Putin leaves as he makes way for newly-elected Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia After the Presidential Election: Major Challenges and Prospects for the Future with Nikolai Petrov.  Petrov on the Putin regime's political structure, the likely policy trajectory of a Medvedev administration, and the problems that Russia's new president will have to tackle.

Medvedev Takes Over, but Putin's Close. Martha Brill Olcott on Vladimir Putin's legacy, the Russian economy, and the course Putin's successor Dmitry Medvedev might take.

Dmitri Trenin  examines the latest Russian foreign policy blueprint, unveiled by President Dmitry Medvedev, and argues that waiting for a liberal and pro-Western Godot in the Kremlin is a losing proposition, and the West needs a policy of its own for dealing with a country that it cannot change.

Russia and the Iranian Nuclear Crisis. Alexei Arbatov explains Moscow's current posture in the Iranian crisis as the sum of Russia's considerations and interests, promoted by various state agencies and political and economic groups in Russia.

Russia's Foreign Policy: Self-Affirmation or a Tool for Modernization? The vision is grand, the reality less so. Russia's foreign policy has been merely assertive and reactive up till now. Will the new President manage something more constructive? Read Dmitri Trenin's analysis in OpenDemocracy.net.

NATO's Eastern Extension: What is at Stake? Trenin discusses the state of affairs after the last NATO summit in Bucharest and argues that many countries who most recently joined NATO did so to achieve a security guarantee against a resurgent Russia.

Martha Brill Olcott testifies before The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Hearing on "Promises to Keep: Kazakhstan's 2010 OSCE Chairmanship," July 22, 2008.

Kazakhstan: Will "BRIC" be Spelled with a K? Martha Brill Olcott looks in detail on Kazakhstan's positive trend and recent foreign policy achievements. While credit is givern to the leadership's skills in maneuvering both on the domestic political arena as well as among the great powers, Dr. Olcott still flags for potential future problems if President Nazarbaev fails to open up the political system.

During Vladimir Putin's presidency, tight control of the mass media evolved as one of the Russian leadership's key political resources. In her latest op-ed in The Washington Post, Maria Lipman argues that it will be equally indispensable to newly inaugurated President Dmitry Medvedev.

The Future of Missile Defense in U.S. Strategy and Policy. Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, and Philip E. Coyle, senior advisor at the Center for Defense Information came to the Carnegie Moscow Center to present papers on the need for the United States and Russia to undertake a joint study on the capabilities of anti-missile defense systems (AMD). Audio recordings available.

The Future of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. A Carnegie Moscow Center's roundtable with Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association.  Kimball outlined the current impasse facing START, the views of key Republican and Democratic lawmakers and possible steps that new Russian and American presidents might take toward reducing their respective strategic arsenals.

Is Democracy Winning? Robert Kagan, Carnegie senior associate, argues that the re-emergence of the great autocratic powers, along with the reactionary forces of Islamic radicalism, has weakened the order of liberal democracy and the democracies need to pull together and take a hand in shaping history.