As Russia reasserts itself on the international stage, the relationship between its civilian and military spheres remains one of the determining factors in the organization of political power. Thomas Gomart’s Russian Civil-Military Relations: Putin’s Legacy looks beyond traditional dualism between the Kremlin and the military, introducing the role of the security services in Russian power distribution. It provides crucial analysis of the nature and evolution of the balance between civilian and military institutions. These relations will continue to influence regime development, security policy, and societal attitudes that build from Putin’s Russia, to Medvedev’s administration, and into the future.
Turkey narrowly avoided an unprecedented constitutional crisis on Wednesday when its Constitutional Court refrained from banning the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). In a new commentary, Henri Barkey offers an analysis of court’s decision, outlines the history of the AKP, and assesses the impact of the crisis on Turkey’s political future.
Following September 11th and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the structures and power balances that defined regional Arab relations for more than fifty years are in ruins. Though there have been many attempts by the international community to impose order in the Middle East, Paul Salem argues that Arab states must themselves overcome divisive ideologies, prioritize common interests, and develop a cooperative political and security architecture if a new regional order is to come to fruition.
Morocco’s leading Islamist party—the Party for Justice and Development Party (PJD)—is facing growing disillusionment among its supporters after a shift toward secular reforms did not lead to greater national political influence. Amr Hamzawy argues that the PJD is struggling to define a balance between the pragmatic demands of political participation and accusations that they are compromising religious commitments for political advancement.
Arab countries are undertaking diplomatic initiatives that clearly contradict U.S. policy, because they no longer trust the U.S. capacity to contend with escalating regional crises. Marina Ottaway and Mohammed Herzallah assess these initiatives in The New Arab Diplomacy: Not With the U.S. and Not Against the U.S., and concluding that even Arab countries traditionally aligned with the United States are no longer willing to follow Washington’s lead on policies toward Iran, Lebanon, or Hamas.
China’s economy will surpass the U.S. by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury. Albert Keidel argues in his new report, China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, that China’s rapid growth today is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. China’s ascendency as the preeminent world commercial influence requires U.S. leaders to reassess a broad array of economic and military policies.
Next January, the new U.S. President will be confronted with the longest list of severe challenges any president has faced in decades. Prioritizing among them will be even more important than usual. In its new series, "Foreign Policy for the Next President", the Carnegie Endowment’s experts endeavor to do just that. They separate good ideas from dead ends and go beyond widely agreed goals to how to achieve them.
Asia—Shaping The Future The next U.S. administration needs a clear strategic vision for Asia befitting the region’s status as the new global “center of gravity.” In Asia—Shaping The Future, Douglas H. Paal presents key steps the United States should take to advance its interests in “rising Asia.” These include: Signal to China where constructive cooperation will lead; appoint a high-level advocate for Asia; develop new multilateral security and economic arrangements with China and India, including discussion of G8 membership; avoid coalitions based on common values or democracy.
Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World evaluates the changes that are taking place in the region and explores the potential for further reform. The essays provide careful, detailed examinations of ten countries, highlighting the diversity of processes and problems. Beyond the Façade forces us to recognize the reality of conflicting interests and the limitations of external actors to bring about political reform, while drawing lessons on how to make international democracy promotion more effective.
U.S. democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East should focus on realistic political reform goals that correspond both to regional realities and the limited degree of actual U.S. influence. In her new report, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East: Restoring Credibility, Marina Ottaway identifies the most pressing issue facing Arab countries as the need for political systems that can contend with evolving socio-economic realities and provide open participation to political opposition.
Confrontational U.S. policy has tried to create a “New Middle East,” but by ignoring the realities of the region, the United States has exacerbated existing conflicts and created additional problems, argues a new report from the Carnegie Endowment. By focusing on three critical clusters of countries—Iran-Iraq, Lebanon-Syria, Palestine-Israel—and on the three most pressing issues—nuclear proliferation, sectarianism, and the challenge of political reform—the authors provide a new direction for U.S. policy that engages all regional actors patiently and consistently on major conflicts to develop compromise solutions.
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Russian Civil-Military Relations: Putin's Legacy
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