Iraq’s future remains profoundly uncertain. Sectarian divisions continue to handicap the government and despite a reduction in violence after the 2007 troop surge security conditions are grim. Informed by perspective from the Middle East, Carnegie scholars in Beirut and Washington provide analysis of the hurdles preventing political progress in Iraq, the policy options available to the United States, and the role neighboring states, most notably Iran, play in Iraq.
While an ad hoc committee has lifted the ban barring candidates suspected of ties to Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party from participating in the Iraqi elections, it did not dismiss the charges against those candidates and is widely seen as the result of internal and external political pressures.
The recent decision to bar nine political parties and 458 individuals from running in the Iraq’s March parliamentary elections has damaged sectarian reconciliation efforts and affected the integrity of the election process.
Efforts to combat terrorism largely defined the global security agenda during the past decade, when small terrorist groups, with as few as three hundred active members, were able to inflict enormous amounts of damage on regional, national, and international scales.
Any effective U.S. diplomatic approach to Iran must involve other countries in the Gulf, but Washington will not succeed if it continues to strive for an anti-Iranian alliance. A normalization of relations between Iran and its neighbors is an important and attainable step for reintegrating Iran into the international community.
The invasion of Iraq has surfaced long-suppressed nationalist aspirations among the Kurds. If ignored or mishandled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to ignite violence and instability in Iraq and the region.
Barack Obama's election was celebrated throughout the Middle East. But enthusiasm could quickly turn to hostility if the new administration does not back up its rhetoric with concrete changes to U.S. Middle East policy on three key issues: Palestine, Iraq, and political reform.
The Iraq war will be the turning point that changes the basic parameters of our security picture for decades. The war's monopoly on our political energy, which has now stretched to five years -- an eon in a time of fast-moving global change -- is one of its greatest uncounted costs.