One Cheer for Global Trade Talks
Despite the collapse of the Doha trade talks in Geneva this week, Sandra Polaski argues that the global food crisis is creating the basis for longer term progress on a new agricultural trade regime. Key differences over agriculture as well as manufacturing and services trade seemingly stymied a final deal, but the progress on farm talks bodes well for an eventual pact that better reflects the needs of developing countries and the poor.

Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries
What would it take to produce a global trade agreement that holds the potential to lift the incomes of developing countries while at the same time offering advantages to developed countries?  This report from the Carnegie Endowment presents a path breaking new model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations.  The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement and will need additional measures to offset such losses.

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Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy
The Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion with Edward Gresser on his new book, Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy, on February 15, 2008. In this book, Gresser argues that American trade policies of the last sixty years have achieved many of the goals envisioned by their liberal founders.  But he also points out that those trade policies bear embarrasing gaps.

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Latin America's Progress on Gender Equality in Employment
Though Latin America has shown notable progress in achieving gender equality, poor women in the region still face limited opportunities for decent work. In a new analysis published by the International Poverty Centre, Carnegie Senior Associate Eduardo Zepeda unravels the complexity of women’s labor force participation in Latin America: many poor women can only find work performing domestic chores for rich or middle-class households, which in turn enables wealthier women to secure higher wage employment outside the household.

The World Bank's Approach to Core Labor Standards and Employment Creation
On October 3, 2007, Sandra Polaski testified at a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Financial Services on “The Fight against Global Poverty and Inequality: The World Bank’s Approach to Core Labor Standards and Employment Creation”.  Polaski praised some recent actions by the World Bank and its sister institution, the International Finance Corporation, but expressed concern that different departments of the Bank pursue contradictory stances with regard to core labor standards and employment creation.

Minimum Wages and the Wage Structure in Mexico
Low minimum wages may be partially to blame for the growth of inequality in Mexico throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s, Carnegie Senior Associate Eduardo Zepeda and co-authors David Fairris and Gurleen Popli find in a new paper.  Even if low compared to market wages, minimum wages play an important role in wage-setting for low-income workers, including those in the informal sector. The finding has important policy implications: government policies aiming to mitigate minimum wage’s negative impacts on employment may have pernicious consequences for income inequality.

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China: World's Largest Economy
China’s economy will surpass the U.S. by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury. Albert Keidel argues in his new report, China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, that China’s rapid growth today is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. China’s ascendency as the preeminent world commercial influence requires U.S. leaders to reassess a broad array of economic and military policies.

China's Economic Prospects 2006 - 2020
A new Carnegie Paper studies the impact of China’s accession to the WTO and projects different economic paths for China over the next 15 years using computable general equilibrium models. Projections to 2020 show that the most dramatic difference between a benign global environment and a more conflicted one is felt by China’s poor rural households. WTO accession, while generally beneficial for the Chinese economy, increased the already pronounced disparity between urban and rural households. The paper identifies the challenges Chinese policymakers face as they attempt to improve distribution along with growth.  

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Sovereign Wealth Funds: International Framework Needed

The financial interdependence that sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) created between the West and the Arab world could help stabilize multilateral relations and promote economic development and political stability in the Middle East. In a new Carnegie Paper, Sven Behrendt studies the rise of Arab SWFs, assesses their investment strategy, and evaluates the policies of Arab investors and Western nations.

Can Trade Policy Support the Next Global Climate Agreement?

Recent WTO rulings indicate an increasing willingness by many states to restrict trade based on the environmental impact of goods production. Yet concern remains that such restrictions will be used to protect domestic industries, reduce efficiency, and spark trade wars. Margaret Lay explains that well designed trade regimes would mute those concerns, and that the global community should incorporate such measures into any post-Kyoto multilateral climate agreement.

Trade and the Environment:
U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change
International Markets and Climate Change
 

The Global Food Crisis: Time for a Fresh Look at Sustainable Agriculture Policy Alternatives

Recent financial and food price crises have forced policy-makers to question conventional thinking on how agricultural markets work, why they sometimes fail, and what role governments should play when they do. To answer some of those questions, the Carnegie Endowment and the Heinrich Boll Foundation co-hosted a panel of experts to discuss sustainable agriculture policies.
 

Rising Food Prices, Poverty, and the Doha Round
Skyrocketing food prices have sent shock waves around the world, from poor households to elite policy circles to trade negotiating tables.  In a new Policy Outlook, Carnegie Senior Associate Sandra Polaski proposes several measures which should be adopted in the WTO’s Doha Round in order to improve long term global food security and reduce future hunger and poverty.  Polaski also reviews the causes and effects of high food prices and finds that - contrary to conventional wisdom - more poor households may gain from rising prices than lose.
 

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The Promise and Perils of Agricultural Trade Liberalization
The Working Group on Development and the Environment released a new report on impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on sustainable development in Latin America at an event at the Carnegie Endowment on July 24, 2008.

Foreign Investment and Sustainable Development
The authors of a new policy report from the Working Group on Development and the Environment discussed the impacts of foreign investment on sustainable development in Latin America at an event at the Carnegie Endowment on June 19, 2008.

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An Employment-Centered Development Strategy for Poverty Reduction in The Gambia
In a new paper, Carnegie Senior Associate Eduardo Zepeda and co-authors James Heintz and Carlos Oya review the growth, employment and poverty record of The Gambia.  They focus on the macroeconomic environment and the structure and functioning of labor markets, and find that the growth pattern of The Gambia does not appear to be pro-poor; improvements in the rate of growth have, at best, halted the spread of poverty.  The authors suggest an alternative policy package to address these problems.

Creating Effective Free Trade
In EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa, Riad al Khouri argues that the West increasingly uses free trade agreements with countries in the region as an economic policy tool with political goals. These agreements have strengthened negative perceptions of “western-led globalization” because they benefit unpopular elites and cause serious short term economic disruptions for workers.

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The Persistent Problem: Inequality and the Challenge of Development
On July 10, 2008, the chair of an American Political Science Association task force discussed the implications for developing countries of global inequality at an event at the Carnegie Endowment.

Worlds Apart: Top World Bank economist Branko Milanovic analyzes income distribution worldwide using, for the first time, household survey data from more than 100 countries. His new book, Worlds Apart, offers a more accurate way of measuring inequality and discusses the relevant policies of first-world countries and NGOs.

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India’s Trade Policy Choices
A major new report by a team led by the Carnegie Endowment reveals both the promise and perils that increased engagement with the global economy holds for India’s farmers, firms, and workers. Continued trade liberalization – including a multilateral deal in the WTO’s Doha Round and possible bilateral agreements with the EU, U.S., or China – could contribute modestly to India’s growth and development. However, if India binds agricultural tariffs at rates which prevent it from offsetting global price shocks, the country could lose more than it gains if prices of key commodities such as rice and wheat continue to swing sharply in the future as they have in the past.

Confronting Pakistan's Social and Economic Challenges
On June 5, 2008, the Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion of the economic and social challenges facing Pakistan and its prospects for dealing with them. Jan Vandemoortele, former UN Resident Representative in Pakistan for humanitarian issues, presented an array of measures of the challenges and his views on how to address them. Discussants Frederic Grare and Teresita Schaffer commented on Pakistan’s uneven performance in achieving human development goals and suggested what the country – and the international community – could do to improve this record given the current political economic context.

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